March 5th, 2026 8:59 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Weekly jobless claims this morning were expected to increase by 3K, claims reported unchanged and remain below averages from the last two years. Continuing jobless claims, which serves as a proxy for outstanding unemployment in the US, rose by 46,000 in the earlier week to 1,868,000, ahead of market expectations of 1,850,000. The data continued to reflect stability in the US labor market despite a low-firing backdrop in combination with slowing hiring.
January import and export prices; month/month imports increased 0.2%, exports +0.6% both higher than estimates. Year/year imports declined 0.1% from 0.0% in December, year/year exports +2.6% down from 3.1% in December. Increases in non-fuel goods offset a decline in energy prices. Excluding fuels, import prices rose 0.5%, while prices excluding petroleum increased 0.5%.
Q4 2025 productivity thought to be +1.9% increased 2.8% from Q3s 5.2% strong worker productivity. Unit labor cost estimates +2.1% increased 2.8%. On an annual basis, nonfarm unit labor costs rose 1.3%, while manufacturing unit labor costs advanced 2.6%. For 2025, unit labor costs rose 1.9% in the nonfarm business sector and 2.3% in the manufacturing sector.
The conflict is the focus, minute by minute news can produce different reactions on impacted markets like the price of gold, the value of the dollar and crude oil.
The 10 year note this morning testing its 50 day moving average, it hasn’t been above it since early December. Fed rate cuts given the firm employment data and the prospect of inflation increasing now are off the table.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.15% +5 bp
5 year note: 3.74% +4 bp
2 year note: 3.59% +3 bp
30 year bond: 4.77% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.83 -18 bp (-27 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.28 -11 bp (-14 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.94 -16 bp (-19 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 157.62 +0.56 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1600 -$0.0040
Dollar Index: 99.11 +0.33
Gold: $5,105.20 -$29.50
Bitcoin: 72,011 -1111
Crude Oil: $77.93 +$3.27
DJIA: 48,357 -382
NASDAQ: 22,056 -2
S&P 500: 6864 -5
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.