CHM Blog

More time, more choices, better deals

Set ‘em up, Joe. Today's homebuyers are no longer in a rush, surmising they’ve had more options than they've enjoyed in years, according to Realtor.com’s Joy Dumandan.

The housing market is experiencing a genuine cooldown that has nothing to do with the winter storm that recently swept across the country, says Dumandan. “The Realtor.com Weekly Housing Trends Report for the week ending January 31 tells us something far more significant: slower listing activity combined with softening prices is creating the most buyer-friendly environment that has been seen in quite some time.”

Realtor.com economists are now predicting a more balanced housing market throughout this year, characterized by steadier price growth, more stable mortgage rates, and negotiating power that finally tilts toward buyers rather than sellers. While mortgage interest rates have been steady recently, they've edged upward over the past few weeks, evidenced by the trend for the first week of February, according to Freddie Mac — slightly up from the previous week, but notably lower than what borrowers faced during the same period in 2025.

The number of active home listings tells an encouraging story for buyers. With active inventory up 8.9% compared to last year, home shoppers are enjoying considerably more choices. However, new home listings—which measure sellers putting homes up for sale—are down 13.3% from the same time last year, partly due to that winter storm affecting nearly half the country. This inventory growth reflects both the rise in new listings and a slower pace of sales, meaning homes are taking longer to find buyers.

Homes are now languishing 6 days longer on the market than they were a year ago. While extended listing times are typical during winter, Realtor.com economists note that the year-over-year gap suggests this slowdown goes beyond normal seasonality. Buyers are clearly weighing their options more carefully, experiencing less competition and enjoying more selection.

Perhaps most notable is the price adjustment. The median list price fell 2.4% year over year, marking the largest weekly price drop on record since Realtor.com economists started tracking this trend in summer 2018. We're now seeing 3 consecutive weeks of price declines as home prices adjust to slower sales activity and growing inventory.

Supply and demand, baby. The median list price per square foot declined 2% year over year, marking the 22nd consecutive week of decreases and signaling that this price softness isn't simply due to a smaller or lower-quality mix of homes available.

Realtor, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +7 bps last week. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

These are the three things that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Jobs, 2) Inflation and 3) Retail Sales

1) Jobs: We have Big Jobs Wednesday as we get the delayed data from last week. The overall job picture last week was one of labor softening. The bond market will be focusing on the massive expected revisions to the prior data just as much as the current round of NFP.

2) Inflation: The Delayed CPI report will hit Friday and the bond market will be very sensitive to any increase in the MOM and YOY trends.

3) Retail Sales: The top of the Food Pyramid for economic data. Here is where the rubber meets the road - does the recent consumer "survey" data from UofM and the Conference Board correlate into weak Retail Sales or does their continue to be very little correlation between what consumers say and what they do.

Treasury Auction: Here is this week's Treasury auction schedule:

02/10 3 Year Note

02/11 10 Year Note

02/12 30 Year Bond

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets are trading sideways without any major reports to work off of. Volatility has started low but will become high as we get some of our major reports in.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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