CHM Blog

The President has nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell to head up the Federal Reserve when his term expires in May. Warsh is a former Fed Governor. Warsh is seen as wanting lower interest rates but in the past, he championed higher rates to stop inflation from increasing. He joined the bank’s board of governors in 2006, becoming a member of Fed Chair Ben Bernanke’s inner circle during the global financial crisis of 2008. He resigned over Bernanke’s quantitative easing, buying up bonds to keep rates low.

This morning at 8:30 am ET December 2025 PPI data increased putting pressure on markets. Core month/month inflation was expected at +0.2% increased 0.7%, year/year core PPI thought to be 2.9% increased to 3.3%. It was sharpest increase in five months. Final demand prices for goods minus food and energy were 0.4% higher, while those for services surged by 0.7%. The reaction dropped MBS prices 13 bps from yesterday, the 10 year note increased 4 bps before backing down to +2 bps at 9 am.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -121, NASDAQ -119, S&P -26. 10 year note 4.25% +1 bp. FNMA 5.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -7 bp from yesterday’s close and +4 bps from 9:30 am yesterday: the 5.5 coupon at 9:30 am -4 bps from yesterday and +1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 9:45 am the January Chicago purchasing managers index expected at 43.8 from 43.5.

Gold and silver under pressure this morning after huge gains since this year began. The media was on it the last few sessions with some forecasters looking for gold to climb to $8K an ounce. Once a market becomes a headline traders usually react oppositely as is the case this morning; gold down $271.00 this morning, silver down $16.00. The retreat wasn’t unexpected after the massive increase the last few sessions.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.25% +1 bp

5 year note: 3.81% -1 bp

2 year note: 3.55% -2 bp

30 year bond: 4.88% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.98 -7 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.40 -4 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.02 -2 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 154.38 +1.28 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1912 -$0.0060

Dollar Index: 96.65 +0.36

Gold: $5,117.40 -$237.40

Bitcoin: 83,322 -769

Crude Oil: $65.85 +$0.43

DJIA: 48,892 -180

NASDAQ: 23,601 -87

S&P 500: 6946 -23

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.