October 30th, 2025 8:37 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Powell rocked the boat yesterday, saying another cut at the December FOMC meeting was not a foregone conclusion.
From a purely technical view, the 10 year note as well as the rest of the yield curve was hitting against key levels. The 10 year note had a brick wall at 4.00%.
The yield curve is increasing. Yesterday the Fed made it official that it is ending its 2+ years of lowering its balance sheet. In the statement Powell said the Fed would let maturing MBSs run-off and use the run-offs to buy T-Bills at the very short end of the curve bringing short tenures down while having little impact at the long end.
In early trade this morning the 10 year yield began at 4.11% +3 bps from yesterday’s close, MBS prices down 11 bps.
More key data delayed this morning; Q3 advance GDP expected at +3.0% down from 3.8% in Q2, weekly jobless claims expected at 235K over the last month.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -130, NASDAQ -198, S&P -39. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.11% +4 bp. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -10 bps from yesterday’s close and -38 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.11% +4 bp
5 year note: 3.74% +2 bp
2 year note: 3.63% +3 bp
30 year bond: 4.65% +3 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.00 -10 bp (-38 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.33 -2 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.83 -5 bp (-22 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 154.18 +1.45 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1572 -$0.0032
Dollar Index: 99.54 +0.32
Gold: $3,979.30 -$21.40
Bitcoin: 107,798 -2846
Crude Oil: $59.84 -$0.64
DJIA: 47,854 +222
NASDAQ: 23,817 -141
S&P 500: 6876 -15
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.