CHM Blog

The next three days are about jobs and to a lesser extent inflation. Today December ADP private jobs, tomorrow weekly jobless and continuing claims, Friday BLS December employment data.

Bond markets started better this morning. December ADP private jobs were less than estimates. Jobs increased 41K against forecasts of 47K, the 10 year yield dipped to 4.13% down 4 bps from yesterday, MBS prices increased 13 bps from yesterday on the initial market reaction but eased back prior to the release of November JOLTS job openings at 10 am ET. Small establishments added 9K jobs and recovered from November job losses. Also, medium companies added 34K jobs and large ones only 2K. Meanwhile, year-over-year pay for job-stayers rose 4.4%, the same as in November. For job-changers, the pace of pay growth accelerated to 6.6% from 6.3%.

Weekly MBA mortgage applications last week increased 0.3%, purchase applications were down 6.2% from the prior week, re-finance apps increased 7.4% after increasing 5.6% the previous week. Applications levels remained near their lowest since the start of August last year.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +66, NASDAQ -43, S&P unchanged. The 10 year note at 9:30 am -3 bps to 4.14%. FNMA 5.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +9 bp from yesterday’s close and +16 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am November JOLTS job openings expected at 7.60 million from October’s 7.67 million, openings fell to 7.146 million. More positive news for those expecting a rate cut or two this year.

December ISM services sector index expected at 52.2, reported at 54.4.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.14% -3 bp

5 year note: 3.69% -2 bp

2 year note: 3.46% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.83% -4 bp

30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.90 +10 bp (+16 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.53 +5 bp (+11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.94 +9 bp (+18 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 156.48 -0.20 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1694 +$0.0005

Dollar Index: 98.57 -0.01

Gold: $4,459.50 -$36.60

Bitcoin: 91,732 -734

Crude Oil: $56.63 -$0.50

DJIA: 49,676 -45

NASDAQ: 25,866 +44

S&P 500: 6995 +7

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.