CHM Blog

A slightly better start this morning in the bond and mortgage markets with the FOMC meeting now underway. The 10 year note started at 4.15% -2 bps, MBS prices began 3 bps better. Today likely to be not much changed awaiting the key news from the FOMC and Powell tomorrow afternoon. Very doubtful the Fed won’t cut their key rate, the overriding question is what and how will the policy statement, the Fed projections and Powell will try to frame the outlook for employment and inflation and potential future rate cuts. One thing that markets want to see tomorrow is the so-called dot plots, where FOMC members are for an additional cut in January, the fed is very divided now, the most in years.

ADP reported private jobs increased on average of 4,750 jobs per week the last 4 weeks ending November 22nd. ADP reported November jobs lost 32K jobs in November one week ago, marking the largest monthly drop since March 2023, driven primarily by a 120,000-job decline at small establishments.

The NFIB (National Federation of Independent Businesses) optimism index better than thought, the index at 99.0 fem 98.2 in October. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 9 points to a net 15%. Meanwhile, 21% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 6 points from the previous month.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +85, NASDAQ -87, S&P -4. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.15% -2 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +3 bps from yesterday’s close and -6 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am October JOLTS job openings expected at 7.200 million increased to 7.670 million. The initial reaction to better jobs turned the 10 year note to +1 bp at 4.18%.

At 1 pm $39B 10 year note auction; yesterday’s 3 year auction found strong bidding.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.18% +1 bp

5 year note: 3.77% +2 bp

2 year note: 3.60% +2 bp

30 year bond: 4.81% +1 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.95 +3 bp (-6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.37 +4 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.69 -2 bp (-7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 156.44 +0.51 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1632 -$0.0006

Dollar Index: 99.12 +0.03

Gold: $4,227.80 +$10.10

Bitcoin: 90,393 -414

Crude Oil: $58.65 -$0.23

DJIA: 47,933 +193

NASDAQ: 23,503 -44

S&P 500: 68554 +8

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.