Israelis attacked Iran last night. Global equity markets fell, the DJIA down as much as 400 points in futures trading, crude oil increased $6.00/barrel, interesting that no flight to safety into US treasuries that lasted. The 10 year note originally declined to 4.31% -5 bps but by 8 am ET this morning at 4.36% unchanged from yesterday.
That safety moves haven’t led to US treasuries suggests the Israeli/Iran action overnight is not seen as a major escalation, just more of the same in the region. US and global equity markets are taking hits but US stocks already stretched and current levels react to any event no matter the long term significance. The dollar this morning higher, crude oil up $5.00, gold even with the dollar weakening increased $56.00 on safety movement. Treasury yields declined last evening when Israel launched the attack, but the modest evening declines faded as the night went on.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -471, NASDAQ -160, S&P -40. 10 year note 4.38% +2 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -9 bps from yesterday’s close and -9 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 10 am, the only data today, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, sentiment expected slightly better at 53.5 from 52.2 at the end of June. The consumer outlook increased substantially to 60.5.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.39% +3 bp
5 year note: 4.00% +3 bp
2 year note: 3.95% +2 bp
30 year bond: 4.88% +3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.03 -12 bp (-9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.80 -7 bp (-4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.03 -9 bp (-6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 144.10 +0.60 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1525 -$0.0060
Dollar Index: 98.38 +0.47
Gold: $3,458.80 +$56.40
Bitcoin: 105,126 -1701
Crude Oil: $72.76 +$4.72
DJIA: 42,305 -664
NASDAQ: 19,48 -225
S&P 500: 5987 -59
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.
At 8:30 am ET this morning weekly jobless claims at 248K with estimates at 243K and unchanged from a week ago. Claims at the highest since last October, the four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, rose by 5,000 to 240,250—its highest level since late August 2023. Continuing claims jumped by 54,000 to 1,956,000 in the week ending May 31, the highest since mid-November 2021 and well above the forecast of 1,910,000. The labor market is slowing although still strong based on historic comparison, 4.2% unemployment remains at that level.
Yesterday May CPI month/month overall CPI was expected +0.2% but increased 0.1% and down from +0.2% in April; year/year overall +2.4% against 2.5% forecasts but up from 2.3% in April. Core CPI month/month thought to be +0.3% increased 0.1% and down from 0.2% in April, year/year core estimates were +2.9%, reported at 2.8% unchanged from April. Based on that data inflation isn’t increasing.
This morning May wholesale prices (PPI) also supports a low inflation view. Month/month overall PPI expected at +0.2% reported at +0.1%, year/year overall estimates 2.6% reported at 2.6%. Core month/month PPI, less food and energy, thought to be +0.3% up just 0.1%, year/year core estimates at 3.1% hit at 3.0%. Prices for goods went up 0.2% while cost for services inched 0.1% higher. April core month/month was revised from -0.4% to -0.2%. Year/year core PPI and trade services at 2.7% down from 2.9% in April.
The opinions rotate over whether the Fed will lower rates at the FOMC September meeting, yesterday and today inflation readings showed inflation isn’t increasing, the May CPI and PPI imply inflation has yet to feel the brunt of the tariffs leading many this morning to look for a rate cut later this summer. Those on again, off again conjectures about rate cuts are as reliable as a 10 day weather forecast, the outlook changes with each key data release.
At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened -155, NASDAQ -32, S&P -9. 10 year 4.37% -6 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +16 bps from yesterday, and +21 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 1 pm Treasury will conclude this week’s borrowing with $22B 0f 30 year bonds; yesterdays 10 year note auction wasn’t a barn burner but did get decent demand.
The 10 trading under 4.40% is a critical level; already this morning the note yield has increased 3 bps from its low yield earlier this morning.
10 year note: 4.38% -5 bp (low 4.35%)
5 year note: 3.97% -5 bp
2 year note: 3.91% -4 bp
30 year bond: 4.87% -5 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.12 +16 bp (+21 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.84 +11 bp (+17 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.09 +4 bp (+13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 143.26 -1.34 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1599 +$0.0111
Dollar Index: 97.80 -0.83
Gold: $3,419.50 +$75.80
Bitcoin: 107,057 -1718
Crude Oil: $67.41 -$0.74
DJIA: 42,695 -171
NASDAQ: 19,592 -24
S&P 500: 6017 -5
The US/China trade talks ended with agreements on rare earth trade with China and other agreements. “We have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between the two presidents,” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters. In mid-May in Geneva both sides agreed to a 90 day suspension on tariffs then it broke down when each side accused the other of violating the agreement. Both sides now back to brief their leaders and resolve any uncertainties, in other words it isn’t a done deal yet.
Market reaction isn’t much, stock indexes started slightly lower, rates slightly higher but then flipped to a little lower by 8:30 am ET when May CPI inflation report hit.
May CPI is better than forecasts. Month/month overall CPI was expected +0.2% but increased 0.1% and down from +0.2% in April; year/year overall +2.4% against 2.5% forecasts but up from 2.3% in April. Core CPI month/month thought to be +0.3% increased 0.1% and down from 0.2% in April, year/year core estimates were +2.9%, reported at 2.8% unchanged from April. The reaction sent the 10 year note yield from 4.50% +2 bps to 4.44% -4 bp. MBS prices from -7 bps to +6 bps on the initial reaction. Recent inflation data, PCE and two months of CPI have not shown much increase in inflation, today’s report indicates a decline. The overwhelming outlook is inflation will increase, so far not yet.
Weekly MBA mortgage applications last week increased 12.5% from the prior week, purchase applications +10.3%, re-finances +15.6%. Apps the best in over a month.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +31, NASDAQ +67, S&P +12. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.45% -3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +16 bps from yesterday’s close and +21 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 1 pm Treasury will auction $39B of 10 year notes, yesterday’s 3 year note mirrored the soft demand for treasury debt recently. Today’s 10 year will get close attention from traders.
At 2 pm May Treasury balance, expected -$313B after +$258.4B in April.
The next potential movement in rates is the 10 year auction at 1 pm or anything that might come from the White House.
10 year note: 4.44% -4 bp
5 year note: 4.04% -6 bp
2 year note: 3.97% -6 bp
30 year bond: 4.92% -1 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.91 +16 bp (+21 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.67 +14 bp (+16 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.96 +7 bp (+12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 145.14 +0.25 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1462 +$0.0036
Dollar Index: 98.84 -0.26
Gold: $3,357.80 +$14.40
Bitcoin: 109,694 +137
Crude Oil: $66.21 +$1.23
DJIA: 42,943 +76
NASDAQ: 19,743 +28
S&P 500: 6045 +6
The 10 year note began this morning down 3 bps after slipping 3 bps yesterday, MBSs yesterday +12 bps, this morning up another 9 bps in early trading.
US and global markets focused on the trade talks between the US and China taking place in London, nothing so far other than comments that progress is being made. The US willing to work with China to gain access to its rare earth minerals, China wants less tariffs. No major breakthroughs were reported after the first round of discussions yesterday, US officials expressed optimism about the negotiations. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said talks are going well and are expected to go all day today.
The only data point today, the May NFIB small business optimism index. The index expected at 95.9 from 95.8 in April increased to 98.8, the highest reading in three months. Eighteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up two points from April and ranking as the top problem. The last time taxes were ranked as the top single most important problem was in December 2020. In addition, the net percent of owners expecting better business conditions rose 10 points from April to 25%. Fourteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from April.
This afternoon at 1 pm ET Treasury will auction $58B of 3 year notes, these days with increased concern over the US debt and the reconciliation bill that is expected to add to the deficit the demand for US debt is an increasing concern.
Tomorrow May consumer price index, CPI and Thursday May producer price index, PPI, two key inflation reports. Also, tomorrow Treasury will auction $39B of 10 year notes that will generate a lot of interest. Treasury is expected to report its May budget; expectations are the deficit will be -$313B after April’s surplus of $258.4B.
At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened -19, NASDAQ +27, S%P +10. 10 year note at 9:30 am -3 bps to 4.45%. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon +8 bps from yesterday’s close and +20 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.
10 year note: 4.45% -3 bp
5 year note: 4.06% -2 bp
2 year note: 4.00% -2 bp
30 year bond: 4.91% -3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 100.76 +9 bp (+21 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 102.58 +8 bp (+18 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 100.89 +7 bp (+24 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 144.54 -0.06 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1442 +$0.0021
Dollar Index: 98.89 -0.05
Gold: $3,364.80 +$9.90
Bitcoin: 109,466 +797
Crude Oil: $65.51 +$0.22
DJIA: 42,740 -22
NASDAQ: 19,525 +33
S&P 500: 6015 +9
Neutral
Home economics gets a family makeover
Sometimes it’s interesting to note how America lives. What makes them tick when it comes to home. Recently, Realtor’s Snejana Ferberov offers a snapshot of how — of all demographic groups — Gen X (people born between 1965 and 1980) —accounted for the largest share of homes bought with the intention of housing several generations of the same family.
Gleaned from a study dubbed the Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers report by the National Association of Realtors, she reveals that multigenerational dwellings made up 17% of home purchases last year, representing an all-time high and defining multigenerational homes as those that comprise more than one generation, such as adult siblings, adult children, or grandparents.
"The rise in multigenerational home buying underscores a broader trend driven by economic necessity and evolving family dynamics, as it offers a practical and supportive living arrangement that resonates with many families, particularly in times of economic uncertainty and changing social dynamics," writes Amethyst Marroquin, research assistant for NAR.
A recent NAR report tells us that while 21% of Gen X buyers led in the purchase of multigenerational homes, they were followed by younger baby boomers between ages of 60 and 69, at 15%; and older millennials between the ages of 35 and 44, at 12%. And all of this shift happened over the past decade, pushing Gen X, also known as the "sandwich generation," to the top of the multigenerational housing market. Although the article never mentioned it, it’s not unreasonable to believe the pandemic had something to do with it.
This is in comparison to 2013, when Gen X made up just 12% of multigenerational homebuyers. "The cost of homeownership has climbed significantly over the last few years and, as a result, buyers have gotten creative," says Realtor.com senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones. "One way to offset high housing costs is by combining forces and buying with family."
In the meantime, younger baby boomers have seen their share of the multigenerational market noticeably shrink, from 22% in 2013 to 15% in 2025. And last year, more than a 30% of homebuyers cited "cost savings" as the main reason for buying a multigenerational home, up from 15% in 2015, according to the NAR report.
With rising mortgage rates, many Americans have found it difficult to afford a home on their own. And not surprisingly, NAR researchers found that a growing number of adult children were living with their parents.
According to the report, 21% of respondents cited their children over the age of 18 moving back with them as a reason for their buying a multigenerational home, up from just 11% a decade earlier.
Meanwhile, a fifth of respondents shared that their grown children had never left home in the first place, up from just 7% in 2015, underscoring the rising popularity of multigenerational living arrangements, driven by both economic factors and family dynamics, including high living costs, student loan debt, and difficulties in finding well-paying jobs, according to Farberov.
She reports that as a result of these trends, Gen X and boomer households are more likely than other demographic groups to include adult children who have returned home because of economic hardships. Although younger buyers are still in the early stage of their career, having some help from their parents can be beneficial to boost savings and housing prospects down the line.
Older millennials? According to data parsed by NAR experts, they are now moving in with their aging parents. “Thirty-five percent of people in their late mid-30s to mid-40s cited their aging parents' health and caretaking responsibilities as a reason for their decision to purchase a multigenerational home,” says Farberov. “Additionally, nearly a third of older millennials reported that they bought their homes to spend more time with their parents in their golden years.
As families continue to adapt to economic uncertainty and social shifts, multigenerational living is likely to become the rule and not the exception to it in the housing market.
Realtor, TBWS
How Rates Move:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.
Rates Currently Trending: Neutral
Mortgage rates are getting a little support so far this morning. The MBS market worsened by -11 bps last week. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.
This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) Inflation and 3) Treasury Auction.
1) Geopolitical: This category will continue to dominate. This week we have China/US trade talks in London, unrest in CA, the Big Beautiful Bill, and continued tariff news.
2) Inflation: We will get both CPI and PPI this week with the focus on CPI.
3) Treasury Auction: Thursday's 30Y bond auction is the most important for our pricing.
06/10 3 year note.
06/11 10 year note.
06/12 30 year bond.
This Week's Potential Volatility: High
This morning markets saw some rocky trading that has left us a little better than we started. Volatility has started high and will likely be that way all week.
Bottom Line:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Last Friday’s employment report sent MBSs lower, the 10 year note increased 11 bps to close at 4.51%, MBSs dropped 31 bps. The stronger jobs reduced the potential for a rate cut. This week we get CPI and PPI inflation data, treasury auctions (3s, 10s and 30s).
Rate markets began this morning unchanged from Friday with eyes on inflation and treasury auctions the keys this week on economic news.
The US and China in talks in London this morning, the main topic, rare earth minerals that China has and the US needs. The talks aim to resolve issues such as rare-earth exports, tariffs, and restrictions on advanced technology, with the US seeking to restore flows of critical minerals and China seeking tariff reductions and an easing of export controls. The prior meeting in Geneva didn’t accomplish anything, this go round is likely to yield some concessions but very narrowly, the wide issues a long way off. Deflationary readings in China's CPI and PPI for May reported but its trade surplus was larger-than-expected with imports showing a bigger drop than the market had expected.
A lot of debate when the Fed may cut rates again, it ebbs back and forth on each key economic release. Will any rate cuts actually help bring long term rates down? Based on recent Fed cuts not only did long rates not decline, they increased. The climbing US debt will be a high hurdle for long term rates including mortgage rates. Last year the Fed cut 100 bps, the 10 year note yield increased. September 2024 50 bps, November 2024 25 bps, December 2024 25 bps. September 2024 the 10 year at 3.62%, by the end of December 2024 the 10 yield 4.62%, today 4.51%. Lower long-term rates will be driven by a big drop in inflation and a softening economic outlook.
The demand for the Treasury auctions along with inflation readings are the keys this week.
10 year note: 4.50% -1 bp
5 year note: 4.10% -2 bp
2 year note: 4.02% -2 bp
30 year bond: 4.97% unch
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.70 +1 bp (-14 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.44 -7 bp (-29 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.73 unch (-16 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yen: 14.70 -0.15 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1401 +$0.0005
Dollar Index: 99.14 -0.05
Gold: $3,339.20 -$7.40
Bitcoin: 107,336 +983
Crude Oil: $64.44 -$0.14
DJIA: 42,656 -107
NASDAQ: 19,569 +39
S&P 500: 6001 +1
May employment data at 8:30 am ET this morning is a reminder how volatile the report can be. After ADP reported just 37K jobs on Wednesday the BLS report this morning was tilted to lower jobs with markets continuing to expect weaker employment and increasing inflation. NFP jobs were expected at +129K, increased 139K, but April NFP jobs were revised lower from 177K to 147K. Private jobs estimate was +120K, reported 140K, as with NFP jobs April private jobs were revised lower, from 167K to 146K. The labor participation rate at 62.4% down from 62.6% matching February's two-year low, while the employment-population ratio declined by 0.3% points to 59.7%, reaching the lowest level since January 2022. Employment fell in manufacturing, retail, government, and white-collar professions. Additionally, the U-6 unemployment rate, which includes those marginally attached to the labor force and those working part-time for economic reasons, was unchanged at 7.8%. Earnings were higher than expected; month/month +0.4% with forecasts at +0.3% and higher than April’s 0.2%; year/year +3.9% against 3.7% estimates and 3.8% in April. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The initial reaction pushed the 10 year note 7 bps to 4.47%, MBS prices down 16 bps.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +357, NASDAQ +225, S&P +55. 10 year at 9:30 am +7 bps to 4.47%. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -15 bps from yesterday’s close and -27 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
The 10 year note is back to where it traded Tuesday prior to the ADP jobs (+37K) that sent the yield to 4.33% yesterday morning before climbing back to 4.40% at yesterdays close. 4.40% still a pressure point for the note. Today the 10 year note back above its 25 day average at 4.44%. Next week we will get May CPI and PPI inflation data.
10 year note: 4.47% +7 bp
5 year note: 4.10% +9 bp
2 year note: 4.03% +10 bp
30 year bond: 4.94% +6 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 100.86 -15 bp (-27 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 102.73 +4 bp (-8 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 100.89 -7 bp (-15 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 144.86 +1.31 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1393 -$0.0052
Dollar Index: 99.26 +0.52
Gold: $3,374.90 -$0.20
Bitcoin: 104,063 +2160
Crude Oil: $64.56 +$1.19
DJIA: 42,854 +534
NASDAQ: 19,537 +238
S&P 500: 6006 +67
Yesterday May ADP jobs, forecasts were ADP to report jobs +110K, jobs were up just 37K. The fall is in line with many traders and investors believing the economy is beginning to slow with unemployment increasing and inflation to increase.
Weekly jobless claims estimates were 235K, claims increased by 247K. Claims now at their highest since last October. Continuing claims edged slightly lower to 1,904,000 in the week ending May 24, down from a revised 1,907,000 and below expectations of 1,910,000.
Q1 productivity and unit labor costs; productivity estimates were -0.8%, declined -1.5%, unit labor costs thought to be +5.7% jumped to 6.6%. The productivity decline was the first since Q2 2022, largely driven by falling output and rising labor costs; on an annual basis, labor productivity increased by 1.3%, down slightly from the earlier estimate of 1.4%.
April US trade deficit was expected at -$118.1B, it was better at -$61.6B, the lowest monthly level since August 2023 and down from -$138.3B in March.
The ECB continued to cut rates today, the 10th cut in this series.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas saying “Tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending, and overall economic pessimism are putting intense pressure on companies’ workforces. Companies are spending less, slowing hiring, and sending layoff notices,” Employers announced 93,816 job cuts in May, the lowest in four months, compared to 105,441 in April. The services sector cut the most jobs in May (22,492), the highest monthly total for the industry since May 2020, followed by retail (11,483) and health care/products (6,514).
Early this morning the 10 year note yield, after falling 11 bps yesterday was down another 4 bps to 4.32%, as the morning wore on the rate increased back to unchanged at 4.36%.
At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened +78, NASDAQ +60, S%P +16. 10 year note yield 4.36% unchanged FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -2 bps from yesterday’s close and +14 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.
Nothing left on today’s schedule, traders remain edgy with the potential of news coming out of the White House and news over the budget talks.
10 year note: 4.35% -1 bp
5 year note: 3.93% unch
2 year note: 3.88% unch
30 year bond: 4.86% -2 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.13 -1 bp (+13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.81 -3 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.04 -2 bp (+13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 142.98 +0.20 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1481 +$0.0061
Dollar Index: 98.38 -0.41
Gold: $3,411.40 +$11.30
Bitcoin: 105,468 +477
Crude Oil: $63.82 +$0.97
DJIA: 42,250 -178
NASDAQ: 19,403 -57
S&P 500: 5951 -27
Markets and the Fed have been worrying about the economic outlook. So far the employment outlook remains strong, yesterday the April JOLTS job openings far exceeded estimates, expected at 7.10 million increased to 7.391 million. The number of job quits in the US fell by 150,000 to a four-month low of 3.194 million in April.
Another picture appeared this morning, May ADP jobs thought to be 110K dropped to 37K, the lowest increase in 2 yrs. Services sector added 36K jobs, led by leisure/hospitality (38K), financial activities (20K) and information (8K) while job losses occurred in professional/business services (-17K), education/health (-13K) and trade/transportation/utilities (-4K). Also, the goods producing sector lost 2K jobs as falls in natural resources/mining (-5K) and manufacturing (-3K) offset a rise of 6K jobs in construction. Annual pay growth for job-stayers was little changed at 4.5% and pay for job-changers rose 7%, unchanged from April's revised figure.
Friday the BLS will release its May employment data, it too is expected to show job softening, NFP jobs expected at 129K down from 177K in April; private jobs 123K down from 157K in April. Traders and markets focus more on BLS data.
The initial reaction to the ADP jobs drove the 10 year note from 4.47% to 4.40%. The note hasn’t traded below 4.40% over the last month and with BLS employment data on Friday the rate may not have the momentum to push below it today.
At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened +60, NASDAQ +57, S&P +13. 10 year note 4.41% -6 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +15 bps from yesterday’s close and +11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 9:45 am the ISM services index for May; expected 52.0 from 51.6. It was reported at 49.9%.
10 year note: 4.70% +1 bp
5 year note: 4.46% -1 bp
2 year note: 4.28% -2 bp
30 year bond: 4.94% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.17 -8 bp (-10 bp from 10 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.09 -6 bp ( -8 bp from 10 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.56 -4 bp (-1 bp from 10 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 158.31 +0.25 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0294 -$0.0047
Dollar Index: 109.22 +0.68
Gold: $2,681.40 +$16.00
Bitcoin: 95,003 -1458
Crude Oil: $74.23 -$0.02
DJIA: 42,239 -199
NASDAQ: 19,477 -12
S&P 500: 5899 -10
Yesterday the key 10 year note yield increased 4 bps, this morning down 4 bps at 4.40%, a key level. The note hasn’t breached 4.40% since early May. The improvement today due to the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) lowering its global forecast for the second time this year. The US growth was lowered to 1.6% this year and 1.5% growth in 2026. Last March OCED had growth in the US at 2.2%.
At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened -13, NASDAQ +57, S&P +5. 10 year 4.343% -2 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +7 bps and +4 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 10 am April JOLTS job openings, estimates were openings to have weakened to 7.10 million from 7.192 million in March. Openings have been slowing since February. Openings surprised to the upside, reported at 7.381 million. The number of job openings increased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+43,000) and in mining and logging (+10,000). On the other hand, the number of job openings decreased in accommodation and food services (-135,000) and in state and local government, education (-51,000). Regarding regional distribution, job openings rose in the Northeast (116K), the South (127K), and in the West (33K), but fell in the Midwest (-85K). Meanwhile, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
The number of job quits in the US fell by 150,000 to a four-month low of 3.194 million in April 2025, from the upwardly revised 3.344 million in March and 3.414 million a year ago. The quits rate, a metric that measures voluntary job leavers as a proportion of total employment, ticked down to 2% from 2.1% in the previous month. Quits declined primarily in trade, transportation, and utilities (-123,000).
10 year note: 4.43% -2 bp
5 year note: 4.00% -1 bp
2 year note: 3.95% unch
30 year bond: 4.95% -2 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.89 +7 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.67 +10 bp (+6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.88 +6 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 134.54 +0.83 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1384 -$0.0058
Dollar Index: 99.09 +0.39
Gold: $3,374.40 -$22.80
Bitcoin: 105,643 +1160
Crude Oil: $62.94 +$0.42
DJIA: 42,244 -62
NASDAQ: 19,304 +61
S&P 500: 5932 -4