Real Estate Market Insider 12/1/2025

Mortgage Rates Currently Trending	7 Day Mortgage Rate Forecast	This Week's Potential Volatility

Neutral	Neutral	High
(by Sigma Research)

Real Estate Report

The winter listing advantage nobody talks about

Home for the holidays with a house to sell? Conventional wisdom says you've already missed the boat. After all, spring and summer are supposedly when homes fly off the market. This year, however, it might be the perfect time to ignore that advice.

According to Realtor.com’s Allaire Conte, this winter's housing market looks very different from last year's sluggish season. Mortgage rates have dropped to 12-month lows, inventory is up from last year, and prices are holding steady nationwide if not dropping here and there when sellers aren’t getting the multiple offers they were once spoiled by. That's creating an unexpected window for sellers brave enough to list when everyone else is waiting it out for spring.

Realtors will readily admit to the traditional concerns about winter listings. Bad weather disrupts showings, and buyers get distracted by holiday plans, and it’s just not fun to have people traipsing through your house when your tree is up.

So what’s making this year different? Buyers who are shopping right now aren't just browsing —they're on a mission. You could call it a collapse of the competitive landscape that creates real opportunity. Winter buyers face hard deadlines—corporate relocations before year-end, school enrollment cutoffs, divorce settlements that need closing before the end of the year. Buyers make decisions quickly, write cleaner offers, and actually close on time.

Another advantage? Right now homes are staying on the market for several months before buyers start wondering if something's wrong. A stigma becomes attached to the listing by the time 4 months rolls along. “List in November or December, and you're perfectly positioned to catch both the urgent end-of-year buyers and the fresh wave of shoppers who return in January and February,” says Conte.

She adds that lenders sweeten the deal as well, often offering better terms as they rush to meet year-end volume targets. Buyers who close before December 31st can capture tax deductions for mortgage interest, points, and prepaid property taxes this year rather than waiting another 12 months.

Conte points out that some properties have an edge right now according to Realtor.com's Investor Report. “In 2024, roughly 13% of home purchases went to investors. These buyers care about tax timing and year-end financial planning, making single-family homes and townhouses particularly attractive in these final weeks.

The key to success, agents agree, is pricing it right from day one. Late-season buyers do their homework and won't overpay. Price both aggressively and realistically can translate into seeing multiple offers come in fast. Of course, the BEST time to list is when you're ready—not when the calendar tells you to.

Realtor, TBWS

This Week's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +26 bps last week. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Inflation, 2) ISMs and 3) Jobs.

1) Inflation: We will get the very delayed PCE report on Friday which is the Fed's official measure of inflation just days before their December meeting. The higher this report is, the worse it is for rates and vice-versa.

2) ISMs: These have been a very consistent data set that was not impacted by the government shutdown. Manufacturing is expected to remain in contractionary territory while Services are expected to remain in expansionary territory. Bond traders will focus on Prices Paid and Employment components.

3) Jobs: Normally, we would be getting the BLS Non Farm Payroll report on Friday but it will be delayed until after the FOMC meeting. However, we still all the normal jobs data that leads up to the BLS. We will get Challenger Job Cuts, ADP and Initial Claims.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets have started under very heavy pressure. Volatility has started high and will likely stay that way.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Daily Market Analysis 12/1/2025

We have a heavy economic calendar this week. Markets continue to believe the Fed will lower their key rate next week. It isn’t a question of if, it’s a question of what the data will show about future cuts. The BLS is expected to combine September and October monthly employment data and report on December 9th. Inflation measured by the PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation) is schedule for Friday along with personal income and spending. The data released this week will largely be for September, old news but that is all we have.

This morning the 10 year note started at 4.03% at 7 am ET, by 9 am at 4.05%, MBS prices at 9 am -14 bps from Friday’s close. Tomorrow the October JOLTS job openings. ADP’s jobs report, due on Wednesday expected at +20K jobs in November down from 42K in October adds credence that employment is slowing. Thursday weekly jobless claims 225K from 216K the prior week. September PCE inflation Friday, (old data) month/month thought to be +0.3%, year/year overall +2.8%; core PCE month/month +0.3%, year/year +2.9%.

In other news, the President is said to have made his decision about the next Fed chief, according to reports he will announce it prior to Christmas. Powell’s term ends in May.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -267 after increasing 289 last Friday, NASDAQ -194K from +151 Friday, S&P -42 from +36. The 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.09% +7 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -17 bps from Friday’s close and -18 bps from 9:30 am Friday.

At 9:45 am November manufacturing PMI expected at 51.5, reported at 52.2.

At 10 am November ISM manufacturing index thought to be 49.0, reported at 48.2.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.09% +7 bp

5 year note: 3.66% +6 bp

2 year note: 3.54% +4 bp

30 year bond: 4.75% +8 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.09 -17 bp (-18 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.33 -6 bp (-5 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.88 -10 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yen: 154.97 -1.20 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1634 +$0.0037

Dollar Index: 99.17 -0.28

Gold: $4,260.60 +$5.70

Bitcoin: 86,055 -5281 (last week the coin increased 6,492)

Crude Oil: $59.50 +$0.97

DJIA: 47,660 -56

NASDAQ: 23,252 -114

S&P 500: 6828 -21

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Daily Market Analysis 11/28/2025

Thin trading today with no data points and early closes this afternoon.

Delayed US data showed retail sales rose less than expected in September, signaling potential weakness in consumer spending, while ADP employment indicators pointed to a sharp slowdown in labor market activity.

Last Tuesday the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow for Q3 GDP, a report that analyses growth based on key incoming data. The report lowered growth from 4.0% to 3.9% for the quarter, well above economists’ 2.8% target.

Over night the CME had an issue with its trading platforms, disrupting trading in futures markets. A data-center fault had affected multiple markets, with the issue lasting longer than a similar outage in 2019. According to reports the outage didn’t cause much of a problem given there are no key reports due today.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +105, NASDAQ +90, S&P +18. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.00% unchanged. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -2 bps from Wednesday’s close and +5 bps from 9:30 am Wednesday.

Stocks close at 1 pm, bonds at 2 pm. Next week’s calendar calls for PCE inflation next Friday. Next Monday November ISM manufacturing index.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.01% +1 bp

5 year note: 3.59% +2 bp

2 year note: 3.49% +1 bp

30 year bond: 4.65% +1 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.27 -2 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 am Wednesday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.38 -1 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am Wednesday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.01 unch (-2 bp from 9:30 am Wednesday)

Dollar/Yen: 156.32 +0.02 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1579 -$0.0017

Dollar Index: 99.63 +0.04

Gold: $4,240.30 +$38.70

Bitcoin: 92,051 +611

Crude Oil: $59.25 +$0.60

DJIA: 47,557 +130

NASDAQ: 23,274 +59

S&P 500: 6828 +15

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

FHFA Announces Conforming Loan Limit Values for 2026

Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Value Will Increase to $832,750

for immediate release

11/25/2025

Washington, D.C. – U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) today announced the conforming loan limit values (CLLs) for mortgages Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) will acquire in 2026. In most of the United States, the 2026 CLL value for one-unit properties will be $832,750, an increase of $26,250 from 2025.

National Baseline

The Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) requires FHFA to adjust the Enterprises’ baseline CLL value each year to reflect the change in the average U.S. home price. Earlier today, FHFA published its third quarter 2025 FHFA House Price Index® (FHFA HPI) report, which includes statistics for the increase in the average U.S. home value over the last four quarters. According to the nominal, seasonally adjusted, expanded-data FHFA HPI, house prices increased 3.26 percent, on average, between the third quarters of 2024 and 2025. Therefore, the baseline CLL in 2026 will increase by the same percentage.

High-Cost Areas

For areas in which 115 percent of the local median home value exceeds the baseline conforming loan limit value, the applicable loan limit will be higher than the baseline loan limit. HERA establishes the high-cost area limit in those areas as a multiple of the area median home value, while setting the ceiling at 150 percent of the baseline limit. Median home values generally increased in high-cost areas in 2025, which increased their CLL values. The new ceiling loan limit for one-unit properties will be $1,249,125, which is 150 percent of $832,750.

Special statutory provisions establish different loan limits for Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. In these areas, the baseline loan limit and the ceiling loan limit for one-unit properties will be $1,249,125 and $1,873,675, respectively.

Due to rising home values, the CLL values will be higher in all but 32 U.S. counties or county equivalents.

Other Resources

List of 2026 conforming loan limits for all counties and county-equivalent areas in the United States.
A map showing the 2026 conforming loan limits across the United States.
Detailed addendum of the methodology used to determine the conforming loan limits.
List of FAQs that covers broader topics that may be related to CLL values.
Questions about the 2026 CLL values may be addressed to LoanLimitQuestions@fhfa.gov.
For more information, visit https://www.fhfa.gov/CLL.

Daily Market Analysis 11/26/2025

This morning weekly jobless claims were better than was forecasted at 216K. Estimates were for 225K, down from 222K the previous week. The 4 week average at 233.75K, down from 224.75K. Continuing claims increased by 7K. Although better than last week employment remains slow and keeps the Fed on course to lower their key rate on December 10th.

Old data, durable goods orders. September orders expected at +0.1%, increased 0.5%. Ex-transportation thought to be 0.0%, increased 0.6%.

The two 8:30 am ET releases pushed the 10 year note rate up 2 bps to 4.02%, yesterday the note declined 3 bps to end at 4.00%, the level that continues to find resistance. Yesterday the stock indexes had a good day, this morning in futures trading prior to 9:30 am the indexes continued their improvement.

MBA reported weekly that mortgage applications increased 0.2% last week after falling 5.2% the week before. Purchase applications increased 7.6% compared to the week before, refinance applications -5.7% after dropping 7.3%.

US debt continues to increase, yesterday Treasury reported the beginning of the US 2026 fiscal year, October, the deficit increased $284B for the month.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +181, NASDAQ +151, S&P +33. 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.03% +3 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -3 bps from yesterday’s close and +2 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 9:45 am November Chicago purchasing managers index thought to be 44.3 plummeted to 36.3, the lowest in months.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.04% +4 bp

5 year note: 3.61% +4 bp

2 year note: 3.51% +4 bp

30 year bond: 4.68% +3 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 101.22 -3 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 102.36 -1 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 101.03 -3 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 156.56 +0.50 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1580 +$0.0008

Dollar Index: 99.81 +0.14

Gold: $4,185.40 +$45.40

Bitcoin: 87,266 -108

Crude Oil: $58.01 +$0.07

DJIA: 47,260 +148

NASDAQ: 23,081 +55

S&P 500: 6787 +21

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Daily Market Analysis 11/25/2025

After the delays, this morning at 8:30 am ET two key data releases. September PPI inflation expected +0.3% month/month, reported +0.3%, year/year +2.7% with estimates at +2.6%; core PPI ex food and energy +0.1% against +0.3% expected year/year +2.7% reported +2.6%. September retail sales thought to be +0.4%, +0.2%, ex-vehicles were +0.3% as forecast.

ADP’s new calculations for private job growth released this morning showing further signs of weakening as the pace of layoffs has picked up over the past four weeks, ADP said as part of a running update. Private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the past four weeks, an increase from the 2,500 jobs a week lost in the last update a week ago. Powell worries about weakening employment, the report adds a little more to the equation for a cut in December, although other employment releases haven’t confirmed.

Prior to the 8:30 am reports the 10 year note traded down 2 bps from yesterday at 4.02%, on the data the rate declined to 4.01%, MBS price increased 10 bps from yesterday.

There are increasing numbers of Fed officials calling for to cut rates at the December meeting. Employment slowing and while inflation isn’t declining its not increasing based on the recent old data. Today September PPI was reported, the more critical CPI according to what we hear will be released on December 9th, the day the FOMC meeting begins.

At 9 am September Case/Shiller home price index -0.1% as expected, year/year 20 city price +1.4% also as expected.

At 10 am consumer confidence: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined by 6.8 points in November to 88.7 (1985=100) from 95.5 in October. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 4.3 points to 126.9. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 8.6 points to 63.2. The Expectations Index has tracked below 80 for ten consecutive months, the threshold under which the gauge signals recession ahead. The cutoff for preliminary results was November 18, 2025.

The benchmark 10 year note is sitting at 4.00%, breaking below 4.00% is difficult. Back in October the note did fall to 3.98% but lasted two days.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.01% -3 bp

5 year note: 3.59% -1 bp

2 year note: 3.49% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.65% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.20 +8 bp (+12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.34 +6 bp (+7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.99 +3 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 155.98 -0.94 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1572 +$0.0051

Dollar Index: 99.88 -0.27

Gold: $4,117.50 +$23.30

Bitcoin: 86,570 -2578

Crude Oil: $57.56 -$1.28

DJIA: 46,589 +141

NASDAQ: 22,769 -102

S&P 500: 6697 -8

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Daily Market Analysis 11/24/2025

It’s a busy shortened week with Thanksgiving on Thursday. Some delayed data from the shutdown will be released this week.

This Week’s Calendar. Monday at 1 pm ET $69B 2 year note auction. Tuesday October retail sales (+0.4%), October PPI inflation (+0.3% month/month, year/year +2.6%; core month/month +0.3%, year/year +2.7%), September Case/Shiller home price index (+0.1% from +0.2% in August, year/year 20 city +1.4%), November consumer confidence index (93.3 from 94.6), October pending home sales (-0.4%), $70B 5 year note auction. Wednesday weekly jobless claims (225K from 220K), September durable goods orders (+0.1%, ex-transportation orders 0.0%), November Chicago purchasing managers index (44.3 from 43.8), October new home sales, October personal income and spending, $44B 7 year note auction. Thursday closed. Friday stock market closes at 1 pm, bond market at 2 pm.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +128, NASDAQ +314, S&P +56. 10 at 9:30 am 4.05% -2 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +4 bps from Friday and +10 bps from 9:30 am Friday.

At 1 pm $69B 2 year note auction.

There is still some uncertainty about when past data will be reported.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.05% -2 bp

5 year note: 3.62% unch

2 year note: 3.52% unch

30 year bond: 4.68% -3 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.08 +4 bp (+10 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.27 +2 bp (+9 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.91 +2 bp (+9 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yen: 157.00 +0.61 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1530 +$0.0017

Dollar Index: 100.16 -0.02

Gold: $4,070.80 -$8.70

Bitcoin: 85,443 -2013

Crude Oil: $57.87 -$0.19

DJIA: 46,315 +70

NASDAQ: 22,644 +391

S&P 500: 6664 +61

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Daily Market Analysis 11/21/2025

For weeks markets have been twisted back and forth about a potential Fed rate cut at the FOMC December 10th meeting.

Overnight in a speech in Santiago, Chile NY Fed President John Williams, the most influential regional Fed president, tossed his hat in the ring suggesting a December rate cut could happen. The 10 year note rate at 8 am ET the lowest since October at 4.06%.

Williams: “I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions... Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals.”

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +172, NASDAQ +123, S&P +33. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.06% -4 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +11 bps from yesterday’s close and +8 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index expected at 50.5, increased to 51.0.

Next week is Thanksgiving week, we don’t have the updated economic reports yet, the bond market set to close on Thursday and a half day on Friday. The stock market will trade all day on Wednesday and Friday.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.07% -3 bp

5 year note: 3.63% -3 bp

2 year note: 3.52% -3 bp

30 year bond: 4.71% -1 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.98 +11 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.18 +3 bp (-3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.82 +11 bp (+9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 156.75 -0.70 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1518 -$0.0010

Dollar Index: 100.29 +0.13

Gold: $4,067.60 +$7.60

Bitcoin: 84,800 -1537

Crude Oil: $57.64 -$1.36

DJIA: 45,873 +110

NASDAQ: 22,153 +75

S&P 500: 6563 +24

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Daily Market Analysis 11/20/2025

The BLS reported its September employment report this morning, although the data remains a mixed bag it is the best markets have now. The Dow Jones estimate was for jobs increasing by 50K, the report showed +119K jobs, up from +4K back in August. The July employment report was revised to -72K from -79K. The unemployment rate thought to be 4.3% reported at 4.4%, average hourly earnings +0.2% with estimates of +0.3%, year/year +3,7% up from +3.8% one year ago.

There will be no October employment report, its limited data will be included with the December employment report that will be released on December 9th (the employment report is normally reported the first Friday of each month which is December 5th). Weekly jobless claims were also released, claims were at 220K for the week last week, down from the prior week by 8K, the forecasts for claims was +227K. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 8 increased by 28K to 1.974 million, which is the highest since November 6, 2021.

The household survey used to establish the unemployment rate increased 251K, labor force increased by 470,000 to a fresh record of 171.2 million.

The data is old but does show the labor force is still holding well. The FOMC minutes released yesterday show FOMC voters remain divided about a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, today’s data isn’t likely to alter the differences of options. Consensus within markets presently is the Fed will not lower rates at the meeting that begins on December 9th, the day that BLS says it will report the December employment data. If those dates remain the FOMC meeting and market reactions will be quite interesting.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +589, NASDAQ +486, S&P +109; the stock indexes better this morning on strong earnings news yesterday from NVidia. The 10 year note yield at 9:30 am 4.11% -2 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +8 bps from yesterday’s close and +2 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am October existing home sales at 4.19 mil with estimates at 4.090 million.

The better employment data this morning didn’t motivate traders. The bellwether 10 year note continuing in its narrow range.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.11%-2 bp

5 year note: 3.68% -3 bp

2 year note: 3.57% -3 bp

30 year bond: 4.74% -1 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.90 +8 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.21 +9 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.73 +9 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 157.60 +0.44 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1541 unch

Dollar Index: 100.05 -0.18

Gold: $4,082.40 -$0.40

Bitcoin: 91,088 +1647

Crude Oil: $59.96 +$0.52

DJIA: 46,760 +621

NASDAQ: 23,114 +550

S&P 500: 6764 +122

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Daily Market Analysis 11/19/2025

The US trade deficit for August was released this morning. The deficit for the month -$59.6B, down from -$78.2B in July; its old data. Imports tumbled 5.1% to $340.4 billion, led by a $9.3 billion fall in nonmonetary gold. Exports edged up 0.1% to $280.8 billion.

Weekly MBA mortgage applications last week -5.2%, down from +0.6% the previous week. Applications to refinance a mortgage sank by 7.3%. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home dropped by 2.3%.

At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened +48, NASDAQ +114, S&P +22. The 10 year at 9:30 am 4.11% unchanged. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +8 bps from yesterday’s close and +8 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 1 pm this afternoon Treasury will sell $16B of 20 year bonds.

The minutes from the October FOMC meeting are scheduled to be released at 2 pm today.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.12% +1 bp

5 year note: 3.69% unch

2 year note: 3.58% unch

30 year bond: 4.74% unch

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.89 +8 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.16 +3 bp (+7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.69 +6 bp (+7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 156.53 +1.02 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1562 -$0.0020

Dollar Index: 99.85 +0.30

Gold: $4,113.80 +$47.30

Bitcoin: 91,718 -1066

Crude Oil: $59.01 -$1.73

DJIA: 46,195 +103

NASDAQ: 22,725 +292

S&P 500: 6673 +56

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

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