CHM Blog

The 10 year note, overnight, increased before returning to unchanged. The note hit 4.38% but fell back and at 8:30 am ET at 4.33% -1 bp. The FOMC meeting starts this morning, the policy statement and Jerome Powell tomorrow afternoon.

The only scheduled data today, March US trade deficit was expected at -$126.3B, declined to -$140.5B. The widening was the result of March exports being $0.5 billion more than February exports and March imports being $17.8 billion more than February imports.

This afternoon Treasury will sell $42B of new 10 year notes, the demand will get attention because recent treasury auctions have lacked enthusiasm from foreign investors. The normal reaction to uncertainty is investors and traders flock to the safety of US debt, that hasn’t been the case since the tariffs were revealed in early April. Markets uncertain how tariffs will affect prices. The Fed is in a box, fight inflation or fight economic decline. The uncertainty will last until there is clarity about the trade issues; an increasing use of the word stagflation echoing on Wall Street. The US national debt ($37 trillion) is now 121% as a share of gross domestic product.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -335, NASDAQ -230, S&P -51. 10 year note 4.35% unch. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +3 bps from yesterday’s close and -2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

Until we see some definite progress on trade it is going to be a nervous condition in US and global financial markets. Some talk of a couple of agreements possibly this week.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.35% unch

5 year note: 3.93% -1 bp

2 year note: 3.80% -4 bp

30 year bond: 4.87% +3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 100.97 +3 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 102.67 +5 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 100.83 +1 bp -2 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 142.46 -1.24 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1354 +$1.1352 +$0.0036

Dollar Index: 99.41 -0.40

Gold: $3,396.80 +$74.50

Bitcoin: 93,944 -363

Crude Oil: $59.22 +$2.09

DJIA: 40,837 -382

NASDAQ: 17,597 -247

S&P 500: 5590 -60

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.