July 25th, 2025 8:45 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
This morning US markets starting rates unchanged from yesterday. Stock indexes at 9 am ET saw some minor gains in the DJIA and S&P, slightly weaker on the NASDAQ.
The only data today, June durable goods orders at 8:30 am. Orders in the US declined 9.3% month-over-month to $311.84 billion in June 2025, reversing an upwardly revised 16.5% jump in May, and compared to forecasts of a bigger 10.8% slide. The biggest decline was seen in orders for transport equipment (-22.4%), mostly nondefense aircraft and parts (-51.8%) and capital goods (-22.2%), mainly nondefense (-24). Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.2% and excluding defense, orders edged up 0.1%. Core capital goods thought to be +0.2% declined 0.7%. There wasn’t much reaction to the report.
Today unless some key news drops it should be a quiet session with all focus on next week’s heavy calendar; FOMC, employment, trade deadline next Friday, Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, June personal income and spending, July consumer confidence index, final June University of Michigan consumer sentiment and Treasury auctions of 2s, 5s and 7 year notes.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +64, NASDAQ +4, S&P +7. 10 year at 9:30 am +2 bps from yesterday’s close. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -3 bps from yesterday’s close and +3 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
The biggest tariff deal now is with the EU. After next Friday unless an agreement is reached EU tariffs will be 30%. The EU said to be readying counter measures. Negotiations are going on between the US and EU.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.41% +1 bp
5 year note: 3.98% +1 bp
2 year note: 3.93% unch
30 year bond: 4.96% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.18 -3 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.97 -2 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.16 -4 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 147.79 +0.79 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1710 -$0.0038
Dollar Index: 97.83 +0.45
Gold: $3,348.30 -$25.20
Bitcoin: 116,006 -3017
Crude Oil: $65.95 -$0.08
DJIA: 44,747 +53
NASDAQ: 21,095 +37
S&P 500: 6375 +11
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.