CHM Blog

The April jobs report and recent inflation data will keep the Fed from even hinting of rate cuts. The Fed has time on its side and Powell’s policies are to work slowly. At his press conference Powell will fall back on what he has been saying for months, it’s all about incoming data. Q1 GDP -0.3%, April employment has held up fell, 4.2% unemployment remains at historical lows, PCE April inflation was weaker than expected (although March inflation was revised slightly higher than originally reported). There won’t be much until some key trade deals are announced and how US and global markets react. Nothing in the current data provides a platform to lower rates; incoming data over the next month are key.

At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened -214 after increasing 564 on Friday’s April employment data, NASDAQ -147, S&P -39. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.33% +1 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -3 bps from Friday’s closes and -14 bps from 9:30 am Friday, (on the day Friday MBSs declined 21 bps from last Thursday).

At 9:45 am PMI April composite index thought to be at 51.2 fell to 50.6.

At 10 am ISM April service sector index thought to be at 50.2 increased to 51.6.

At 1 pm $58B 3 year note auction; for the most part recent treasury auctions have shown less demand for US debt.

Rates are likely to stay within a tight range until Wednesday afternoon at Powell’s press conference.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.32% unch

5 year note: 3.91% -1 bp

2 year note: 3.80% -3 bp

30 year bond: 4.38% +3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.99 -3 bp (-14 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.68 +1 bp (-6 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100. 85 +2 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yen: 143.66 -1.31 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1355 +$0.0055

Dollar Index: 99.53 -0.50

Gold: $3,323. 30 +$81.00

Bitcoin: 93,895 -1686

Crude Oil: $57.42-$0.87

DJIA: 41,1768 -139

NASDAQ: 17,848 -130

S&P 500: 5649 -39

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.