CHM Blog

The American dream finds a home in the heartland

Newspaper man Horace Greeley’s timeworn advice of “Move West, young man,” has now turned into “Move to the heartland.” Why? Cities long considered America's “flyover” real estate are now experiencing a revival.

Newcomers are moving from the nation's major metros and the result is having a positive impact on the housing markets in key migration hubs, according to Realtor.com’s Snejana Farberov. “Cities like Columbus, Grand Rapids, Indianapolis, Nashville and Austin have been pulling in young professionals attracted by well-paying jobs in tech, manufacturing, health care, and financial services, as well as families looking for affordable housing and a more relaxed pace of life,” says Farberov, who adds that the success of this internal migration has been undeniable. “According to U.S. Census Bureau data, an estimated 39% of the U.S. population lived in the heartland region in 2024, representing a 2.65% uptick from 2020.”

This marks the first time since 1959 that the heartland's population gains exceeded the national average, according to data-gathering experts. Farberov offers insight on what is driving this demographic shift, but none of it is surprising — affordable housing and the favorable job market, combined with today’s environment of elevated prices and mortgage rates that have been stubbornly stuck for much too long.

Former coast dwellers plus those from major metros like Chicago and Dallas are spurring the housing markets in the heartland's most popular cities. “According to Realtor.com data, the median home list prices in the five heartland hubs—Columbus, Grand Rapids, Indianapolis, Nashville, and Austin—have seen increases ranging from 17% to a staggering 47% from 2019 to 2025,” says Farberov.

In Austin, for example, the typical home cost $358,571 in March 2019, a year before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. By March 2025, that median list price had shot up to $510,000 —a boost of more than 42%. Throughout the rest of the country? The national median home list price increase during that same period was just shy of 39%.

It doesn't hurt that in places like Columbus, new industry is flocking there as well, with defense technology company Anduril Industries gearing to build a $1 billion factory in town, and Intel laying the groundwork to invest $28 billion in two semiconductor manufacturing facilities in the suburb of New Albany.

Grand Rapids and its environs have seen a median home price boost of 36%, meaning that in March 2025, a typical home there cost $385,000. Bustling Nashville has experienced the most dramatic surge in home prices, at 47%. This past March, a typical home in Tennessee's thriving capital cost $535,000, which is 25% higher than the national median.

“Over the past few years, heartland metros have attracted a slew of new businesses, from established companies to startups, looking for that optimal combination of affordable real estate, tax incentives, and an eager cadre of professionals,” says Farberov.

Austin’s tech giants include Tesla and SpaceX, Apple, and Amazon, all having chosen to relocate there. And Realtor.com is no exception, having settled there just a few months ago, citing the city's business-friendly environment, low taxes, and a deep talent pool.

Dallas and Columbus are draws for manufacturing, retail, and finance."As more people, particularly younger professionals and diverse talent, are drawn to the booming tech and entertainment hubs in the Midwest heartland, the region is rapidly evolving," says Realtor’s economist Jiayi Xu. "It’s increasingly becoming a place that offers the ideal balance of affordability, opportunity, and a high quality of life."

Recent analysis also shows cities such as Louisville and Detroit are among the most popular places people are moving to. Realtor.com's online traffic data is now being used by economists to identify markets that received the most buyer interest in the past year, with a higher share pointing to greater interest in homes within these market, suggesting they’re more attractive to homebuyers.

Realtor, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Higher

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +58 bps last week. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) The Fed and 3) Domestic News.

1) Geopolitical: Really this category overrides any economic data or news this week as the MBS market and long bond market will continue to react severely to constant churn of headlines and news over "terminating" Fed Chair Powell, Tariffs and more.

2) The Fed: We will get the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday which means we will have a FOMC meeting just two weeks after that.

04/21 Goolsbee

04/22 Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, Barkin, Kugler

04/23 Beige Book, Goolsbee, Waller, Hammack

04/24 Kashkari

3) Domestic News: We really don't have a major economic release this week that can move rates in a meaningful way. LEI will be interesting as will be the Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations.

Treasury Auction: Here is this week's auction schedule:

04/22 2 year note

04/23 5 year note

04/24 7 year note

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets started under pressure. Volatility has started at moderate levels but can increase at any moment depending on geopolitical headlines.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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