CHM Blog

Early this morning the 10 year note was 4.35%, -4 bps prior to 8:30 am ET data.

At 8:30 am weekly jobless claims were expected at 220K from claims the prior week revised from 215K to 216K, claims last week 222K +6K from the week before. Continuing claims declined by 37,000 to 1,841,000 on the second week of April, a two-month low, and well below market expectations that they would rise to 1,880,000. The labor market continues to be tight.

March durable goods orders thought to be +1.6% from February jumped 9.2%, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, ex-transportation orders were expected +0.3% reported unchanged, core capital goods orders estimates +0.3% reported +0.1%. The huge increase driven by forward buying ahead of coming tariffs.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased to –0.03 in March from +0.24 in February. Production-related indicators contributed –0.09 to the in March, down from +0.25 in February. The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution were –0.03 in March, down from +0.01 in February. Employment related indicators contributed –0.01 to the in March, up from –0.02 in February. The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to the was +0.11 in March, up from a neutral value in February.

Yesterday it was implied the President is considering lower the tariffs on China from 145% to 50 to 65% to possibly break the ice in the stand-off between the two countries. Yesterday Secretary of Treasury Bessent commented that a final deal with China could take up to three years to complete. Hope there is some closure on some issues prior to that, in this world three years is difficult to compute.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -170, NASDAQ +66, S&P +5. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.33% -6 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +22 bps from yesterday’s close and -13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am March existing home sales, expectations were 4.120 million.

At 1 pm this afternoon Treasury will complete this week’s borrowing with $44B of 7 year notes. Yesterday’s 5 year auction met with good demand after the very weak 2 year auction on Tuesday.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.34% -5 bp

5 year note: 3.97% -4 bp

2 year note: 3.82% -6 bp

30 year bond: 4.79% -3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.96 +22 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.72 +16 bp (-5 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.68 +22 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 142.56 -0.88 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1366 +$0.0052

Dollar Index: 99.41 -0.44

Gold: $3,330.50 +$36.40

Bitcoin: 92,867 -700

Crude Oil: $62.87 +$0.60

DJIA: 39,625 +19

NASDAQ: 16,913 +205

S&P 500: 5415 +40

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.