May 7th, 2025 12:34 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
This morning the 10 year note at 8 am ET 4.32% +1 bp, MBS prices started down 5 bps.
Weekly MBA applications increased last week after three consecutive weekly declines, +11.0% from the previous week, purchase applications +11.1% and re-finance apps +11.1% driven by VA apps up 26%.
A crack in the ice? US and China are set to meet over the weekend in Switzerland. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with their counterparts in Geneva in the most-senior known conversations between the two countries in months. It is a start but any concrete deal over trade with China is months away. Secretary of State Bessent testified to a House committee that the U.S. and China “have not engaged in negotiations” but “as early as this week,” the U.S. will be announcing trade deals with some of the largest U.S. trading partners.
The stock market fell yesterday (DJIA -390), this morning prior to the 9:30 am open the index traded +200 points with China trade conversations set. China is the elephant but any announcements with countries like South Korea, Japan, India, Vietnam will go a long way toward adding some details that currently keep volatility at high levels. Consensus is high that prices in the US will go up, but most are generalized comments.
How will Jerome Powell address the present situation this afternoon? We don’t see much difference from what he has said previously. The Fed isn’t near a rate cut now, employment data still holding well and inflation isn’t increasing.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +154, NASDAQ +4, S&P +9. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.30% -1 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +5 bps from yesterday’s close and +18 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 2:30 pm this afternoon Jerome Powell’s press conference.
March consumer credit at 3 pm, with the Fed center stage the report won’t get much focus.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.29% -2 bp
5 year note: 3.90% unch
2 year note: 3.81% +2 bp
30 year bond: 4.7% -3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.15 +5 bp (+18 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.83 +7 bp (+16 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.93 unch (+10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 143.25 +0.84 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1358 -$0.0012
Dollar Index: 99.44 +0.20
Gold: $3,398.00 -$24.80
Bitcoin: 96,974 +2016
Crude Oil: $58.91 -$0.18
DJIA: 41, 073 +244
NASDAQ: 17,740 +50
S&P 500: 5631 +24
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.