CHM Blog

The are no economic releases today but there are four Fed officials speaking.

Markets will get the next inflation release on Friday when August PCE data is reported, forecasts not looking for big changes from July. Last week Powell didn’t say anything that changed the outlook for two more cuts in the FF rates this year but continued his remarks that more cuts will be based on incoming economic and inflation data, the next FOMC meeting is on October 29th then December 10th.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at -0.12 in August, the highest in five months, compared to a downwardly revised -0.28 in August. The Index suggested that economic growth increased in August. Production-related indicators contributed -0.02, up from -0.17 in July. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a neutral contribution, up from -0.02. Employment-related indicators contributed -0.07, up from -0.10. The personal consumption and housing category's contribution was -0.03, down from +0.02 in July. Meanwhile, the index's three-month moving average, increased to -0.18 in August from -0.20 in July. The report isn’t a market-mover.

At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened -153, NASDAQ -28 S&P -14. 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.13% unch, FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon 1 bp from Friday’s close and +2 bp from 9:30 am Friday.

With no scheduled news today, look for rate markets to be quiet. There is still optimism in the market for more rate cuts from the Fed.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.14% +1 bp

5 year note: 3.68% unch

2 year note: 3.58% unch

30 year bond: 4.77% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.04 -1 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.28 unch (unch from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.89 unch (+4 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yen: 147.91 -0.05 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1773 +$0.0027

Dollar Index: 97.46 -0.18

Gold: $3,752.00 +$46.20

Bitcoin: 112,261 -2883

Crude Oil: $62.25 -$0.43

DJIA: 46,176 -139

NASDAQ: 22,650 +18

S&P 500: 6660 -4

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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