CHM Blog

The government appears likely it will shut down at mid-night tonight. Maybe a little flight to safety today in the bond market but shouldn’t be much. Both parties are talking a shut down to last maybe five days. The last time there was a government closure was 2019.

The shut down takes Friday’s September employment report off the table, BLS won’t release it. If the partial shut down does extend longer than what is presently anticipated other key data points will also be delayed. Key inflation data is currently scheduled for 10/15 and the next FOMC meeting 10/28.

At 9 am ET July Case/Shiller home price index month/month expected at -0.2% reported -0.1%. Year/year price index +1.8% against 1.7% estimates and down from +2.1% in June, it was the smallest gain since July 2023 and is very old data, not to be taken too seriously.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +8, NASDAQ -31, S&P -7. 10 year at 9:30 am -1 bp at 4.13%. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +6 bp from yesterday and +11 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

The two key data points this morning at 10 am. August JOLTS job openings and September consumer confidence index. JOLTS estimates 7.100 million from 7.181 million, consumer confidence index 96.0 from 97.4. Job openings were stronger that thought, at 7.227 million and July opening revised from 7.181 million to 7.208 million. The number of job openings decreased in construction (-115,000) and in federal government (-61,000). Meanwhile, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined by 3.6 points in September to 94.2 (1985=100), down from 97.8 in August. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 7.0 points to 125.4. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—decreased by 1.3 points to 73.4. Expectations have been below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025. The cutoff date for preliminary results was September 21, 2025.

There was little reaction to the 10 am data.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.12% -2 bp

5 year note: 3.72% -2 bp

2 year note: 3.62% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.70% -1 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.88 +6 bp (+11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.15 +5 bp (+7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.80 +10 bp (+11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 147.90 -0.71 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1736 +$0.0008

Dollar Index: 97.89 -0.02

Gold: $3,847,10 -$8.10

Bitcoin: 113,572 -804

Crude Oil: $62.50 -$0.95

DJIA: 46,353 +37

NASDAQ: 22,555 -37

S&P 500: 6658 -3

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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