CHM Blog

The Fed is locked into the belief that the employment market has slowed. It has shifted its priority from inflation to employment declines. At the September FOMC meeting the Fed’s projections don’t see inflation hitting its obsolete 2.00% target until 2027. Tariffs the prime reason inflation will stay higher than the Fed wants.

MBA mortgage applications for last week. Applications in the US fell 1.8%. Applications to refinance a home loan decreased 1% and applications buy a home dropped 2.7%.

At 8:30 am ET the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index rose 19.4 points to 10.7 in October, marking its third positive reading in the last four months and beating market expectations of -1.0, signaling modest growth in business activity across New York State. New orders improved to 3.7 from -19.6 in September, while shipments rebounded to 14.4 from -17.3. Delivery times lengthened slightly (3.9 versus 0.0), and supply availability continued to worsen modestly (-10.7 versus -8.8). Inventories were largely unchanged (-1.0 versus -4.9). Employment increased to 6.2 from -1.2, though the average workweek edged slightly lower (-4.1 versus -5.1). Both input costs and selling prices rose at a faster pace. Firms grew more optimistic about the near-term outlook, with nearly half expecting conditions to improve in the coming months.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +180, NASDAQ +210, S&P 43. 10 year 4.02% -1 bp. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -2 bps from yesterday’s close and +7 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 2 pm the Fed Beige Book, the Fed’s details from the 12 Fed districts.

According to Treasury Secretary Bessent this morning on CNBC the administration will set price floors across a range of industries to combat market manipulation by China.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.00% -3 bp

5 year note: 3.60% -1 bp

2 year note: 3.49% unch

30 year bond: 4.60% -3 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.07 -2 bp (+7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.21 -5 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.89 -3 bp (+7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 151.53 -0.30 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1,1627 +$0.0018

Dollar Index: 98.87 -0.18

Gold: $4,209.50 +$46.10 (another new record)

Bitcoin: 111,410 -1271

Crude Oil: $59.01 +$0.31

DJIA: 46,604 +333

NASDAQ: 22,744 +222

S&P 500: 6704 +59

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.