April 3rd, 2025 8:49 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The President released his tariff plans yesterday at 4 pm ET. By 5:30 pm after hours trading the DJIA declined 1,000 points, this morning at 8 am the index down 1,173, NASDAQ -750, S&P -186. The 10 year note early this morning 4.05% -7 bps. MBS price at 8:30 am +15 bps.
DOGE has laid off 216,215 federal jobs in March according to the job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. “Job cut announcements were dominated last month by Department of Government Efficiency [DOGE] plans to eliminate positions in the federal government,” said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president and workplace expert at the firm. “It would have otherwise been a fairly quiet month for layoffs.”
The employment sector continues to hold well, weekly claims were expected at 226K, reported at 219K. Recurring claims rose by 56,000 to 1903,000 in the previous week, the highest since November 2021 and well above forecast, suggesting that unemployed individuals are finding it increasingly difficult to reenter the workforce. Unemployment claims filed under programs for Federal government employees, which have been under close scrutiny due to firings by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), fell by 257 to 564, however that doesn’t reflect reality because many that were let go received severance packages.
The US trade deficit narrowed to $122.7B in February from a record high of $130.7B in January and compared to forecasts of a $123.5B shortfall. The US trade gap narrowed with China, Switzerland and Canada but increased with the EU, Mexico, and Vietnam.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -1106, NASDAQ -734, S&P -171. 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.04% -9 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon 101.85 +29 bp and +2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 9:45 am March PMI composite index expected at 54.3 from 51.0, reported at 53.5.
At 10 am March ISM services sector index thought to be at 53.0, reported at 50.8. The slippage takes the index close to contraction (under 50)
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.03% -10 bp
5 year note: 3.74% -18 bp
2 year note: 3.70% -17 bp
30 year bond: 4.44% -18 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @10 am 101.83 +27 bp (+2 bp from 10 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @10 am 103.31 +28 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 145.78 -3.50 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1099 +$0.0245
Dollar Index: 101.63 -2.18
Gold: $3,105.80 -$60.40
Bitcoin: 82,319 -4623
Crude Oil: $66.73 -$4.98
DJIA: 40,834 -1387
NASDAQ: 16,803 -798
S&P 500: 5463 -208
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.