October 29th, 2025 11:32 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
It's Fed Day. The FOMC policy statement will be released at 2 pm ET this afternoon, then at 2:30 pm Jerome Powell’s press conference.
The bellwether 10 year note has been locked in a very narrow range over the last two weeks.
MBA reported weekly mortgage applications increased 7.1% for the week ending 10/17. Re-finance applications increased 9% on the week. In turn, applications for a mortgage to purchase a new home rose by 5%.
Looking past today, on Friday the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge although its release is tied to the government shutdown. The estimates, September month/month PCE +0.3% unch from August, year/year +2.8% up from 2.7%; core PCE month/month +0.3% from +0.2%, year/year +2.9% unch from August.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +183, NASDAQ +162, S&P +20. 10 year at 9:30 am 3.99% +1 bp. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -5 bp from yesterday’s close and +4 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.00% +2 bp
5 year note: 3.62% +1 bp
2 year note: 3.50% unch
30 year bond: 4.57% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.38 -4 bp (+4 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.46 -1 bp (+6 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.05 -3 bp (+2 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 151.99 -0.12 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1639 -$0.0014
Dollar Index: 98.82 +0.15
Gold: $4,021.60 +$38.50
Bitcoin: 113,033 -672
Crude Oil: $60.38 +$0.23
DJIA: 48,009 +303
NASDAQ: 24,008 +180
S&P 500: 6918 +28
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.