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Daily Market Analysis October 20, 2025

October 20th, 2025 11:54 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568


Daily Market Analysis 10/20/2025

This morning the stock index futures traded slightly better, the 10 year note was unchanged from Friday, MBSs also started unchanged.

Nothing changed about the shut down over the weekend, looks like another week with no key economic data. Weekly jobless claims, a key data point with the Fed focused on employment is scheduled Thursday but unlikely to be released The estimates are 232K up from last week’s 229K estimates. September CPI scheduled for Friday, also likely to be delayed; estimates, month/month +0.4% unchanged from August, year/year +3.1% up from 2.9%; core month/month +0.3% unchanged from August, year/year core 3.1% also unchanged from August.

Data that will be released this week; September existing home sales on Thursday; sales expected at 4.060 million from 4.000 million in August. On Friday September new home sales expected to have slipped from 800K in August to 710K. On Friday University of Michigan final October consumer sentiment index thought to be 55.0 the same as the mid-month index.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +200, NASDAQ +181, S&P +44. 10 year note at 9:30 am 3.99% -2 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +5 bps from Friday’s close and +2 bps from 9:30 am Friday.

There are no data points today.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.70% +1 bp

5 year note: 4.46% -1 bp

2 year note: 4.28% -2 bp

30 year bond: 4.94% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.17 -8 bp (-10 bp from 10 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.09 -6 bp ( -8 bp from 10 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.56 -4 bp (-1 bp from 10 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 158.31 +0.25 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0294 -$0.0047

Dollar Index: 109.22 +0.68

Gold: $2,681.40 +$16.00

Bitcoin: 95,003 -1458

Crude Oil: $74.23 -$0.02

DJIA: 42,239 -199

NASDAQ: 19,477 -12

S&P 500: 5899 -10

About Richard Sardella

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.

Posted by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568 on October 20th, 2025 11:54 AM

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