January 17th, 2025 9:01 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The 10 year note at 8 am ET 4.57% -4 bp after declining 5 bps yesterday and 13 bps on Wednesday: erasing all the increase this month. Yesterday Fed governor Chris Waller added additional fuel when the commented the Fed may be able to lower interest rates three or four times if inflation continues to slip as it did Wednesday on the December CPI. Lower rates depend on inflation declining, Waller made that point clear; the next key inflation release, December PCE is January 31st.
December housing starts and permits at 8:30 am, starts expected at 1.320 million jumped to 1.499 million; permits thought to be 1.458 million increased to 1.483 million.
December industrial production month/month increased 0.9% with forecasts of +0.3% and November revised from -0.1% to +0.2%, manufacturing month/month +0.6% against estimates of +0.4%. Capacity utilization (factory use) expected at 77.0% increased to 77.6%.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +319, NASDAQ +287, S&P +54. 10 year note at 4.60% -1 bp; early this morning the note traded at 4.57% -4 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +4 bps after increasing 10 bps earlier this morning and 31 bps better than 9:30 am yesterday. FNMA 6.5 30 year coupon +5 bps and +25 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
Next week promises to be eventful. The 10 year note yield has fallen from 4.80% to today’s 4.60% the last four sessions, 20 bps and sits this morning at its 25-day average that hasn’t been breached since December 11th, a key technical resistance.
All markets closed on Monday for MLK birthday.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.60% -1 bp
5 year note: 4.41% +1 bp
2 year note: 4.27% +3 bp
30 year bond: 4.83% -3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.49 +3 bp (+31 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.29 +5 bp (+23 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.71 +3 bp (+29 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 156.10 +0.95 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.0292 -$0.0010
Dollar Index: 109.31 +0.35
Gold: $2,738.80 -$12.10
Bitcoin: 102,577 +2269
Crude Oil: $78.31 -$0.37
DJIA: 43,470 +317
NASDAQ: 19,565 +227
S&P 500: 5985 +48
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.