June 16th, 2025 8:50 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The conflict between Israel and Iran continued over the weekend, Iran attacked civilian targets, Israel saying retaliation is inevitable. The US stock indexes improved slightly, gold is lower and crude after a the increase last week began fractionally lower.
The FOMC meeting is central stage this week along with the G-7 meeting. There isn’t any expectation for a rate cut, Powell and the Fed have their collective handfuls with the tariffs and impact on inflation and employment. While the 90 day extensions on the tariffs is still in affect there hasn’t been an increase in inflation or decrease in employment.
The President will attend the G-7 meeting for the first time since 2019. The topics, trade, Israel/Iran, Ukraine. The members of G-7 U.S., U.K., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan, as well as representatives from the European Union. Other guests include Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Ukraine, South Africa, and South Korea. According to the schedule there will be trade talks although it isn’t likely any key deals will be struck. According to the schedule there will not be any joint statement at the conclusion.
At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened +221 after falling 770 on Friday, NASDAQ +190 from -256, S&P +41 from -68 Friday. 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.44% +3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -4 bps from Friday’s close and -15 bps from 9:30 am Friday.
The Mid-East situation still a key for rates and commodities as the conflict rages on, no safety to treasuries, most safety moves in gold and energy markets. US and global investors more focused on inflationary impacts as the Israel/Iran war continues to escalate. Powell’s press conference on Wednesday, as always interesting, this one will be even more so with the economic outlook so uncertain. Speculation ranges from no cuts in September to one cut and even a larger cut possible. The US and global economies can only conjecture and opine, no solid consensus that will keep day to day volatility more uncertain.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.41% +1 bp
5 year note: 4.02% unch
2 year note: 3.96% unch
30 year bond: 4.90% unch
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.88 -4 bp (-15 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.74 -2 bp -6 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.96 +1 bp (-7 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yen: 143.87 -0.25 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1594 +$0.0042
Dollar Index: 97.78 -0.41
Gold: $3,430.60 -$22.20
Bitcoin: 106,781 +1472
Crude Oil: $72.15 -$0.83
DJIA: 42,631 +434
NASDAQ: 19,669 +262
S&P 500: 6041 +64
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.