July 17th, 2025 9:08 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Prior to 8:30 am ET this morning the 10 year note was 4.48% +2 bps.
At 8:30 am weekly jobless claims were expected at 233K from 228K the previous week, claims declined to 221K -7K the lowest claims since last April. Continuing claims were essentially unchanged from the previous week at 1,956 million, expectations were 1.970 million. The employment condition remains strong.
June retail sales were better than the forecast of +0.1%, increasing +0.6%, ex-vehicles thought to be +0.3% increased 0.5%, ex-vehicles and gas thought to be up 0.1% increased 0.6%. The largest increases were for miscellaneous goods and services (1.8%), motor vehicles and parts (1.2%), building material & garden equipment (0.9%), and clothing (0.9%). Sales excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations, which are used to calculate GDP, were up 0.5%, following a downwardly revised 0.2% increase and also above expectations of 0.3%.
June import and export prices also at 8:30 am, imports forecasts month/month were +0.2% reported at +0.1%, year/year -0.2% against estimates of +0.2%, Export prices month/month expected at -0.1% increased 0.5%, year/year +2.8% up from +1.7% in May. There were declines in prices for food, beverages, and motor vehicles. Fuel import prices fell 0.7%, as lower natural gas prices outweighed a rise in petroleum costs.
The final 8:30 am release, July Philadelphia Fed business index, expected -0.4 from -4.0 jumped to 15.9.
At 9 am the 10 year note held its rate prior to the 8:30 am data at 4.48% +2 bps from yesterday.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +41, NASDAQ +36, S&P +6. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.45% -1 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -2 bps from yesterday and +3 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 10 am July NAHB housing market index expected at 33 from 32 in June.
From a technical view the 10 year note has firm resistance at 4.50%; it should hold for now.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.43% -3 bp
5 year note: 3.98% -2 bp
2 year note: 3.89% unch
30 year bond: 4.99% -3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.09 -2 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.88 -3 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.08 +3 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 148.62 +0.74 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1586 -0.0056
Dollar Index: 98.67 +0.28
Gold: $3,322.30 -$36.80
Bitcoin: 117,927 -1414
Crude Oil: $66.58 +$0.20
DJIA: 44,392.19 +137
NASDAQ: 20,812 +81
S&P 500: 6279 +15
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.