August 4th, 2025 9:05 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Last Friday the BLS revised the previous job gains down 258K from previous reports, the second time this year the agency did it. Not only were the revisions shocking, but the July jobs expected at 110K were reported up just 73K. The 10 year note dropped 16 bps the lowest since early July the 2 year note fell 28 bps. If there was any doubt about a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting it went out the window. The employment sector remains in decent shape according to most analysts.
This morning the 10 year note rate began US trading -1 bps to 4.20% after hitting 4.26% in overnight trade. US stocks traded better in futures markets prior to the 9:30 am ET open. The stock indexes took a heavy beating last Friday; DJIA -542, NASDAQ -472, S&P -101; last week DJIA -1.3`13, NASDAQ -1,358, S&P -151.
Tariffs kicked in last week, there are more scheduled this week. The headline this morning is Switzerland; they don’t have a deal unless there is news, its tariffs will be 39%.
Last week the economic calendar was full of key data, this week not as much. Treasury auctions will get a lot of focus.
Not much news over the weekend, comments rolling in about the employment data last Friday.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.22% unch
5 year note: 3.77% unch
2 year note: 3.67% unch
30 year bond: 4.81% -2 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.81 +4 bp (+12 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 103.42 +3 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.68 +3 bp (+41 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yen: 147.10 -0.31 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1581 -$0.0008
Dollar Index: 98.67 -0.74
Gold: $3,429.80 +$30.00
Bitcoin: 114,513 +212
Crude Oil: $65.70 -$1.65
DJIA: 43,964 +375
NASDAQ: 20,971 +320
S&P 500: 6309 +71
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor the tbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.