CHM Blog

Market moderation takes hold nationwide

With existing-home sales registering a 4 million annual sales pace in April 2025, Realtor.com’s Danielle Hale reported it trailed 0.5% behind sales last month and stands at 2% less than a year ago. While pending home sales revived in March, they remained lower than one year ago, a trend that seems to be continuing.

Price growth, always at the center of these reports, continued but moderated further, with the median sales price rising just 1.8% from a year ago, to $414,000. “The typical asking price has remained roughly flat as the market sees a growing number of homes for sale,” says Hale. “Potential sellers who overreach on price might have to adjust lower to attract a buyer in a market signaling more balance.”

She goes on to report that the National Association of Realtors (NAR) data showed that the supply of unsold housing inventory rose to 4.4 months, its highest since September 2016 with the exception of a one-month jump in May 2020. “This level of supply relative to sales is distinctly in balanced market territory, in line with the Realtor.com forecast predictions for 2025,” says Hale.

But all is not created equal, as a noticeable regional variation is more pronounced in today’s housing market. Home prices rose in the Northeast and Midwest even as they declined mildly in the South and West. Hale relays that Realtor.com’s research indicates the housing supply shortage is most acute in the Northeast and Midwest. “Combined with the best performance in home sales relative to one year ago, this is a recipe for price pressure,” says Hale.

These April home sales likely went under contract in March and early April, when mortgage rates held in a very narrow range. “Even before the big trade announcement on April 2nd, consumers had reported concerns about the outlook for personal financial situations and job security, which might have undermined their confidence in making a large purchase, such as a home,” she reports. “In addition, fluctuating stock prices in the wake of April 2 might have reduced some home shoppers’ down payment and closing funds.”

Everyone is trying hard not to refer to the “big R.” Survey data from Realtor.com shoppers showed that even as recession concerns rose among consumers in the first quarter, most said that it would not affect their home buying decision. And those who thought it would reasoned that a recession would be an accelerant to buyers.

As for mortgage rates? “Home shoppers remain optimistic amid a growing number of homes for sale,” says Hale. “But opportunities vary by region and price point.” Looking ahead, interest rates remain a key determinant of affordability. So far, they seem likely to remain in a range where they are more likely to dampen than bolster home sales in the near term.

Realtor, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Lower

Mortgage rates are moving lower today. The MBS market worsened by -23 bps last week. This may have been enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) Inflation and 3) The Consumer.

1) Geopolitical: The "Big Beautiful Bill" will continue to drive markets as more of it is understood and markets weigh possible adjustments in the Senate as well as the probability of it even getting out of the Senate. Tariff Negotiations (EU in center stage) will also continue to drive rates. Japan has helped us out this morning as they announced that they are mulling "trimming" the issuance of super-long bonds.

2) Inflation: We get the Fed's Official measure of inflation, Core PCE on Friday. Will we see any impact of tariffs? The higher this data set (along with Personal Incomes and Personal Spending), the worse it will be for rates and vice versa.

3) The Consumer: We will get both Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment this week. These have seen really low levels combined with really high inflation expectations.

Treasury Auction: Here is this week's Treasury auction schedule:

05/27 2 year note.

05/28 5 year note.

05/29 7 year note.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets are seeing a boost on geopolitical developments. Volatility has started at moderate to high levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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