October 16th, 2025 9:23 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Three key reports due out today, delayed again with the shut down. Weekly claims, September producer price index (PPI) and September retail sales. The estimates for claims was 229K, PPI month/month +0.3% from -0.1%, year/year +2.6% unchanged from August; core month/month +0.3% from -0.1%, year/year +2.7% from 2.8%. September retail sales +0.4% from +0.6%, ex-vehicles +0.3% from +0.7%. Without the releases the estimates don’t mean much
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +133, NASDAQ +136, S&P +25. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.05% +2 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -5 bps from yesterday’s close and -4 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 10 am October NAHB housing market index expected at 33 from 32 increased to 37.
The FOMC still expected to cut the key rate on October 29th with or without data, Powell added his outlook yesterday that rate decisions are not on a pre-determined path, but the cut is coming.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.04% +1 bp
5 year note: 3.64% +1 bp
2 year note: 3.52% +1 bp
30 year bond: 4.64% +1 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.03 -5 bp (-4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.23 -1 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.92 -2 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 151.09 +0.03 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1662 +$0.0013
Dollar Index: 98.60 -0.19
Gold: $4,269.90 $68.30
Bitcoin: 111,410 +81
Crude Oil: $58.48 +$0.21
DJIA: 46,300 +46
NASDAQ: 22,770 +100
S&P 500: 6686 +15
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.