October 10th, 2025 8:52 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Early this morning the 10 year note yield was down 3 basis points from yesterday after increasing 2 basis points yesterday. Markets are waiting for Congress to re-open the government.
Fed Governor Waller spoke this morning. He supports more rate cuts but cautions that the Fed needs to be cautious due to what he said is conflicting economic signals. “I’m still in the belief we need to cut rates, but we need to kind of be cautious about it,” Waller said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” The labor market seems to be losing jobs, but GDP growth is strong. And inflation isn’t slowing. Waller is one of the candidates to be the next Fed chief.
Weekly jobless claims were not reported yesterday from the Labor Department due to the shut down but Goldman Sachs did its own calculation. According to Goldman Sachs economists, weekly claims for the week ending on October 4th increased to about 235 thousand from 224 thousand the week prior. The week before that claims were 218 thousand. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, ticked up to 1.92 million in the week ended September 27th from the prior week’s estimated 1.91 million. If the assessment is correct, it verifies the labor market is slowing.
At 10 am the October mid-month University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, expected at 54.0 from 55.1 at the end of September. The index was reported at 55.0.
This afternoon at 2 pm the Treasury is scheduled to report the September budget balance and fiscal 2025 deficit. It is unknown if it will actually be reported due to the shut down.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.10% -4 bp
5 year note: 3.70% -3 bp
2 year note: 3.58% -2 bp
30 year bond: 4.68% -4 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.95 +10 bp (+9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.19 +2 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.81 +8 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 152.63 -0.45 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1566 unch
Dollar Index: 99.34 -0.20
Gold: $4,011.10 +$38.50
Bitcoin: 123,317 +1292
Crude Oil: $60.34 -$1.17
DJIA: 46,475 +121
NASDAQ: 23,067 +43
S&P 500: 6748 +13
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.