CHM Blog

Tomorrow is the FOMC decision and Powell’s press conference. Beside the policy decision the Fed will release its quarterly projections for inflation, employment, and GDP growth over the next eight quarters. Expectations are a cut of 25 bps and possibly 50 bps, although we are looking for 25 and indications of another 25 bps at the October 28th and 29th FOMC meeting; there are those that believe another 25 bps will occur at the December 9th and 10th FOMC meeting.

August retail sales this morning were better than forecasts, sales expected +0.3% month/month increased 0.6%, ex-vehicles estimates were +0.4%, increased 0.7%. Excluding vehicles and gas month/month increased 0.7% from +0.3% in July.

August import prices thought to be -0.2% increased 0.3% month/month; year/year 0.0% as expected. Export prices month/month +0.3% against forecasts of -0.2%, year/year +3.4% from +2.2% in July.

At 9:15 am ET August industrial production and capacity utilization; production forecasts month/month 0.0% increased 0.1%, capacity utilization thought to be 77.4% from 77.5% was on target at 77.4%.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -59, NASDAQ +50, S&P +5. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.04% unchanged. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +3 bps from yesterday’s close and +10 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am the September NAHB housing market index expectations were the index at 33 from 32 in August, the index reported at 32.

The key 10 year note since 9/6 thru this morning has been tied into a narrow range, from 4.08% to 4.01%, meanwhile FNMA 5.5 coupon price from 101.13 on 9/5 to this morning’s 101.35 price at 10 am. Investors in MBS securities increasing duration levels making MBSs more attractive.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.03% -1 bp

5 year note: 3.58% -2 bp

2 year note: 3.51% -3 bp

30 year bond: 4.66% unch

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.31 +3 bp (+10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.44 unch (+3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.27 +2 bp (+14 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 146.78 -0.63 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1824 +$0.0061

Dollar Index: 96.96 -0.34

Gold: $3,732.50 +$13.50

Bitcoin: 114,955 -368

Crude Oil: $64.13 +$0.83

DJIA: 45,753 -130

NASDAQ: 22,338 -11

S&P 500: 6610 -5

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.