September 19th, 2025 8:39 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
There isn’t any economic news so far and nothing coming that should have any impact on bond markets today. The stock market after another day of new record highs traded a little better prior to the open at 9:30 am ET.
The reaction to the Fed on Wednesday wasn’t surprising or unusual, US financial markets were expecting a new round of Fed cuts. The FOMC and Powell didn’t say or do anything to change that view. The overall belief remains that there will be a potential 75 bps cuts between now and the end of the year. Expectations can change rapidly pending incoming data. Yesterday the weekly jobless claims were down 33K from the previous week.
The Fed’s forward projections released on Wednesday don’t point to a decline in inflation to 2.0% until 2028. Powell at Jackson Hole three weeks ago hinted that the Fed may have to re-think the appropriate level of inflation and has swung to focus on employment as its guideline.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +76, NASDAQ +89, S&P +15. 10 y at 9:30 am +4 bps from yesterday. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +4 bps from yesterday’s close and +5 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
The appetite for MBSs has increased recently with REITs buying increased amounts of MBSs.
Today is likely to be quiet with little movement through the day.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.12% +1 bp
5 year note: 3.67% unch
2 year note: 3.57% unch
30 year bond: 4.74% +1 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.02 +4 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.28 +3 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.85 +4 bp (unch from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 147.87 -0.12 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1756 -$0.0032
Dollar Index: 97.61 +0.26
Gold: $3,687.10 +$9.50
Bitcoin: 116,330 -1192
Crude Oil: $63.01 -$0.56
DJIA: 46,258 +116
NASDAQ: 22,564 +93
S&P 500: 6649 +17
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.