September 9th, 2025 9:56 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Traders are prepping for tomorrow’s August producer price index (PPI). The only data today, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported its August optimism index, expected at 100.5 increased to 100.8 and up from 100.3 in July.
Today at 1 pm ET Treasury will auction $58B of 3 year notes, the demand will be watched closely. Today the BLS will issue revisions for jobs from March 2024 to March 2025, markets expect another big revision to show less jobs than were originally reported; BLS is under fire for its inability to get more accurate momentary data. If the revisions are weaker than expected it adds to the rapidly growing view the employment sector isn’t what it was thought to be as recently as a month ago.
Tariffs and whether they will stand is a major consideration for US interest rates. The Supreme Court is being pressed by the administration to rule on the recent federal appeals court that the tariffs are illegal and should be returned to countries and end the President's attempt to bring dollars into the Treasury. US debt will continue to increase forcing long term interest rates to increase. Treasury Secretary Bessent told the Supreme Court yesterday anywhere between $750B to $1 trillion would be lost. So far tariffs already collected is about $72B.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +16, NASDAQ +43, S&P +5. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.06% +2 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon -8 bps from yesterday’s close and -6 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
Tomorrow inflation on wholesale prices in August. PPI month/month expected +0.3% down from +09% in July, year/year +3.3% the same as in July; core (ex-food and energy) month/month +0.3% also down from 0.9% in July, year/year +0.3% down from 0.6% in July.
At 1 pm $58B 3 year note auction.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.06% +2 bp
5 year note: 3.58% +1 bp
2 year note: 3.51% +1 bp
30 year bond: 4.72% +3 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.22 -8 bp (-6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.47 -5 bp (-7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.12 -6 bp (-10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 146.82 -0.70 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1746 -$0.0018
Dollar Index: 97.48 +0.03
Gold: $3,703.80 +$26.40
Bitcoin: 112,843 +763
Crude Oil: $63.11 +$0.85
DJIA: 45,507 -8
NASDAQ: 21,826 +27
S&P 500: 6500 +5
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.