October 6th, 2025 8:56 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
No positive news about the government shut down over the weekend, now in its sixth day, which has delayed the release of key economic data last week. Last week’s employment report and weekly jobless claims were not released, but ADP did report its September private jobs declined. The 10 year at its highest in over a week, driven in part by rising borrowing costs in Europe and Japan amid political developments.
The calendar this week is thin on key data, weekly jobless claims on Thursday if the government gets back to work. In the meantime, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting is scheduled to be released on Wednesday. On Thursday Jerome Powell will deliver opening remarks at the Community Bank Conference in Washington, it won’t be live, but a prerecorded video. The week has many Fed speakers on the calendar. There is increasing conversation among Fed officials about whether the current guidelines for when or if to change the FF rate.
At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened +79, NASDAQ +99, S&P +21. 10 year note 4.16 +4 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -11 bps from Friday’s close and -20 bps from 9:30 am Friday.
There are no economic releases today, and hardly any through the week. The week’s focus will be on the progress of the government shut down, the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and Treasury auctions Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Fed speakers every day.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.15% +3 bp
5 year note: 3.74% +2 bp
2 year note: 3.60% +3 bp
30 year bond: 4.74% +3 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.85 -11 bp (-20 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.12 -7 bp (-14 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.72 -8 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yen: 149.90 +2.45 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1698 -$0.0096
Dollar Index: 98.24 +0.52
Gold: $3,963.80 +$54.90
Bitcoin: 124,575 +1945
Crude Oil: $61.31 +$0.43
DJIA: 46,563 -196
NASDAQ: 22,862 +82
S&P 500: 6724 +9
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.