September 5th, 2025 9:23 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The August employment report confirmed the employment sector is slowing. This week the evidence grew that the labor market has cooled off; JOLTS job openings declined, weekly jobless claims and continuing claims yesterday showed unemployment is inching higher. This morning’s report added more solid evidence.
August non-farm jobs were expected +77K, reported +22K, private jobs thought to be +75K, reported +38K. The unemployment rate at 4.3% was as in line with estimates. This report and revisions to past jobs reports (BLS revised past jobs gains down 258K a month ago leading Trump to fire the BLS commissioner for inaccurate data). The unemployment rate increased to the highest since 2021. The number of unemployed increased by 148K to 7.384 mil in the period. In turn, the labor force increased by 436 to 170.778 million, driving the labor force participation rate to increase by 0.1 percentage point from the over two-year low in the previous month to 62.3%. The broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged workers and those working part-time for economic reasons, rose to 8.1% from 7.9% in July.
Month/month average hourly earnings +0.3% as expected and unchanged from July, year/year earnings +3.7% against +3.8% estimates and down from 3.9% in July.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +97, NASDAQ +160, S&P +28. 10 year note 4.07% -9 bp. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +29 bps from yesterday’s close.
The reaction to recent reports that the employment conditions are softening has dropped the 10 year note rate from 4.30% last Tuesday to 4.08% this morning, MBS prices +50 bps.
There isn’t anything scheduled the remainder of the day.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.08% -8 bp
5 year note: 3.56% -8 bp
2 year note: 3.49% -10 bp
30 year bond: 4.80% -6 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.13 +29 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.47 +14 bp (25 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.17 +24 bp
Dollar/Yen: 147.12 -1.37 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1748 +$0.0098
Dollar Index: 97.57 -0.78
Gold: $3,640.20 +$33.50
Bitcoin: 113,084 +3277
Crude Oil: $62.17 -$1.31
DJIA: 45,696 +75
NASDAQ: 21,826 +119
S&P 500: 6513 +11
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.