October 14th, 2025 10:28 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The bond market was closed Monday. The stock indexes had a strong session on optimism the US and China were progressing, that faded over night, this morning stock indexes began lower. US–China trade relations faded as both countries began imposing new port fees on each other’s shipments, stoking concerns of further escalation.
The key today, Jerome Powell speaking at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) at 12:20 pm ET. Early this morning the September. The National Federation of Independent Business Optimism index expected at 100.5 from 100.8 in August but declined to 98.8. Not a top tier report but does go to the view that small businesses have concerns.
It appears that the shut down will last much longer than originally thought, both parties locked in immoveable positions. Tomorrow military and other federal employees will miss a paycheck. Thursday September PPI index will be reported but the more interesting CPI will not be released until October 24th, four days prior to the beginning of the FOMC meeting. The weekly jobless claims scheduled Thursday will not be released for the third week. The September employment report will be on hold.
The IMF and World Bank Group meeting began yesterday and continues through Thursday. Powell today, markets want to hear how he frames the lack of incoming data going into the FOMC meeting in two weeks. The markets remain optimistic for a rate cut of 25 bps from the Fed.
This morning the bellwether 10 year note hit the lowest level since September 17th at 4.00% before climbing back to Friday’s close. MBS prices began lower this morning but found support at 9 am, at 9:30 am +4 bps from Friday.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -372 after increasing 135 yesterday, NASDAQ -331, S&P -67. 10 year a 9:30 am 4.05% -1 bp from Friday. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +4 bps from Friday’s close and +5 bps from 9:30 am Friday.
Powell at 12:20 pm ET will direct movement in rates this afternoon, speaking on the economic outlook and monetary policy. He doesn’t have current data so his remarks will carry some uncertainty. The Fed is ”sure” employment is slowing, the most recent data from ADP showing September jobs declined.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.04% unch from Friday
5 year note: 3.63% unch
2 year note: 3.50% -1 bp
30 year bond: 4.64% +1 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.00 +4 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.20 -1 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.82 -1 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yen: 151.87 -0.42 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1580 -$0.0010
Dollar Index: 99.23 -0.03
Gold: $4,144.50 +$11.50
Bitcoin: 111,093 -4825
Crude Oil: $58.33 -$1.16
DJIA: 45,717 -350
NASDAQ: 22,346 -349
S&P 500: 6589 -66
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.