CHM Blog

Last Wednesday weekly jobless claims were slightly higher than estimates. This morning June employment data added additional thoughts the Fed will lean toward cutting rates sooner than thought last Tuesday. NFP jobs are more than forecasts but May NFP jobs were revised lower, private jobs much lower than estimates and May jobs also revised lower. Month/month average hourly earnings lower than in May, as were year/year jobs.

Prior to the employment report John Williams, NY Fed chief made the usual remarks, inflation is cooling but still has a way to go to achieve the Fed’s goal. Nearly 75% of the market has positioned for the Fed to deliver a rate cut in September, while over 70% expects more than one rate cut this year. The unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.1%, the highest since November 2021. The number of unemployed individuals increased by 162,000 to 6.811 million, while employment levels increased by 116,000 to 161.199 million. The employment-population ratio decreased to 60.1% from 60.2%.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -54, NASDAQ +35, S&P +2. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.30% -6 bps. FNMA 6.09 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +17 bps from Wednesday’s close and +32 bp from 9:30 am Wednesday; 6.5 coupon at 9:30 am +6 bp from Wednesday and +28 bps from 9:30 Wednesday.

Nothing left today. Next week the calendar if full of key data (CPI and PPI), Treasury auctioning 3s, 10s, and 30s.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.32% -4 bp

5 year note: 4.26% -7 bp

2 year note: 4.65% -8 bp

30 year bond: 4.51% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.59 +17 bp (+32 bp from 9:30 am Wednesday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.01 +13 bp (+28 bp from 9:30 am Wednesday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.67 +6 bp (+23 bp from 9:30 am Wednesday)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2694 +$0.0016

Dollar/Yen: 160.94 -0.34 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0832 +$0.0019

Dollar Index: 104.93 -0.20

Gold: $2,387.50 +$18.10

Bitcoin: 55,591 -2663

Crude Oil: $83.85 -$0.03

DJIA: 29,285 -23

NASDAQ: 18,287 +99

S&P 500: 5547 +10

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.