CHM Blog

This morning the 10 year note began at 4.40% -5 bps.

Yesterday the President left the G-7 meeting early to return to Washington to work on the Iran situation, telling his national security staff to be ready to meet today and said, "everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran" (Iran's capital). Meantime Israel saying it has two weeks of planned attacks on Iran in its schedule. Iran yesterday reached out, wanting to re-start the discussions with the US and Israel.

Got data this morning, May retail sales were expected -0.6%, reported -0.9%, ex-vehicles thought to be +0.2% fell -0.3%; the biggest decrease in four months, as consumers scaled back their purchases ahead of the expected tariffs. May month/month import prices higher than forecasts of -0.3% were unchanged from April, year/year +0.2% from +0.1% in April. Export prices month/month thought to be -0.1% fell -0.9%, the most month/month decline since October 2023; year/year +1.7% against April’s +2.0%.

At 9:15 am May industrial production and capacity utilization; month/month production expected +0.1% reported -0.2%; cap utilization thought to be 77.7% unchanged from April hit at 77.4%.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -166, NASDAQ -68, S&P -19. 10 year at 4.43% -3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +8 bps from yesterday’s close and -9 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am June NAHB housing market index forecasts at 36 from 34, released at 32. More details this afternoon.

FOMC beginning now. Tomorrow at 2 pm the policy statement, at 2:30 pm Powell’s press conference.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.44% -2 bp (low today 4.39%)

5 year note: 4.02% -2 bp

2 year note: 3.97% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.93% -3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.97 +8 bp (-9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.81 +8 bp (-7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.01 +5 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 144.82 +0.07 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1564 +$0.0003

Dollar Index: 98.17 +0.17

Gold: $3,414.30 -$3.00

Bitcoin: 105,723 -2948

Crude Oil: $73.12 +$1.35

DJIA: 42,402 -113

NASDAQ: 19,621 -80

S&P 500: 6015 -18

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.