August 15th, 2025 9:41 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
July retail sales were as expected month/month +0.5% from +0.9% in June, ex vehicles +0.3% from 0.5%. The largest increases were seen in sales at motor vehicle & parts dealers (1.6%) and furniture & home furniture stores (1.4%). Other gains were seen in sales at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & bookstore (0.8%), non-store retailers (0.8%), clothing & clothing accessories stores (0.7%) and gasoline stations (0.7%). On the other hand, sales fell at miscellaneous store retailers (-1.7%), building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-1%), and electronics & appliance stores (-0.6%). Sales excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations, which are used to calculate GDP, were up 0.5%, following an upwardly revised 0.8% increase and above expectations of 0.4%.
July import prices month/month thought to be +0.1% increased to +0.4%, year/year estimates -0.2% were down 0.2%. It was the sharpest increase since April of last years, reflecting that foreign companies have not lowered their selling prices so far. Export prices in July month/month +0.1% as forecast and down from 0.5% in June, year/year +2.2% from 2.8% in June.
The Empire State manufacturing index for August expected +0.5 increased 11.9.
At 9:15 am July industrial production and capacity utilization; month/month production estimates +0.0% from +0.3% in June, reported at +0.1%. Capacity utilization was estimated at 77.6% from revised 77.7% fell to 77.5%.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +190, NASDAQ -23, S&P +2. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.30% +1 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon +1 bp from yesterday’s close and -9 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 10 am the mid-month University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was thought to be at 62.1 from 61.7 at the end of July, it plummeted to 58.6. Current condition at 60.9 down from 68.0 at the end of July, consumer expectations at 57.2 from 57.7.
Yesterday the 10 year note once again found strong resistance at 4.20%, then increased to end the day at 4.29% +5 bps.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.30% +1 bp
5 year note: 3.81% -1 bp
2 year note: 3.73% -1 bp
30 year bond: 4.90% +3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.84 +1 bp (-9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 103.44 unch (-6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.83 -3 bp (-3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 146.92 -0.85 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1707 +$0.0058
Dollar Index: 97.83 -0.42
Gold: $3,382.70 -$25.60
Bitcoin: 117,95 -69
Crude Oil: $63.10 -$0.77
DJIA: 45,037 +126
NASDAQ: 21,737 -73
S&P 500: 6458 -10
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.