CHM Blog

Yesterday the 10 year note dropped 3 bps, MBS prices increased 13 bps. This morning started unchanged, stock index futures market the DJIA +254 at 8:30 am ET. Fed chief Powell begins his testimony at about 10 am, last week his press conference after the FOMC meeting is likely to be repeated, no cuts until more data is reported; meanwhile more Fed officials talking about cutting. Yesterday, Michelle Bowman, Fed governor commented that if incoming inflation data remains subdued, she wants a rate cut at the July FOMC meeting on July 30th, last week Fed governor Waller essentially said the same thing although not suggesting a July cut.

There is a lot happening today; Powell at 10 am at the House, (in his prepared text Powell noted that there is no rush to lower interest rates), consumer confidence index, Treasury auctioning $69B of 2 year notes.

Q1 Current Account, expected at -$442.8B reported at -$450.2B, Q4 revised from -$303.9B to -$312.0B.

April Case/Shiller home price index month/month +0.7% down from 1.1% in March; year/year estimates 4.0% reported at +3.4%. The average prices of single-family houses with mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac decreased by 0.4% from the previous month in April, missing market expectations of a 0.1% increase. It was the biggest decline since July 2022.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +297, NASDAQ +181, S&P +39. The 10 year at 9:30 am 436% +1 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am unchanged from yesterday and +4 bps from 9:30 am yesterday morning.

At 10 am June consumer confidence from the Conference Board, confidence expected at 99.0 from 98.0 in May, the index at 93.0. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 (1985=100) from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 6.4 points to 129.1. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell 4.6 points to 69.0, substantially below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was June 18.

At 1 pm this afternoon Treasury will sell $69B of 2 year notes, demand will be key.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.70% +1 bp

5 year note: 4.46% -1 bp

2 year note: 4.28% -2 bp

30 year bond: 4.94% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.17 -8 bp (-10 bp from 10 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.09 -6 bp ( -8 bp from 10 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.56 -4 bp (-1 bp from 10 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 158.31 +0.25 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0294 -$0.0047

Dollar Index: 109.22 +0.68

Gold: $2,681.40 +$16.00

Bitcoin: 95,003 -1458

Crude Oil: $74.23 -$0.02

DJIA: 42,239 -199

NASDAQ: 19,477 -12

S&P 500: 5899 -10

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.