May 23rd, 2025 9:21 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The 10 year note at 8 am ET 4.49% -5 bps, MBS prices began +20 bps from yesterday and 31 bps higher than the close on Wednesday.
More tariff threats from the President, he threatened to impose a 50% tariff on goods coming from the EU on June 1st. “The European Union, which was formed for the primary purpose of taking advantage of the United States on TRADE, has been very difficult to deal with,” The President said in a post on the Truth Social platform. He added that talks with the EU were “going nowhere.”
The dollar continues to decline pressured by renewed fears of US debt increasing and coming tariffs. The lack of progress on trade deals and the estimates of an additional $3 trillion on the deficit linked to rising geopolitical tensions, following reports that Israel may target Iranian nuclear facilities add to the weakening US dollar that in turn lessen demand for dollar denominated assets.
The Moody’s rate down grade on US debt, the passage of the President's tax cut Bill in the House, and the weak demand for the 20 year bond auction combined to add a premium for investors willing to hold US debt. The 30 year bond yield increased to over 5.00% just short of its highest rate in 20 years, adjusted for inflation the highest since 2008 on Wednesday before pulling back yesterday and this morning. Rates increasing globally; Japan climbing to the highest since records began in the late 1990s. Debt in the UK, Germany and Australia has also faced selling pressure. The global increase in long term debt fears continues to increase, almost a universal belief long term debt will continue to increase as government debts become more concerning.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -460, NASDAQ -312, S&P -71. 10 year 4.49% -4 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon +14 bps from yesterday’s close and +32 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
The only economic release today April new home sales.
The bond market will close at 2 pm today, stocks trade regular hours.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.51% -2 bp
5 year note: 4.06% -4 bp
2 year note: 3.96% -4 bp
30 year bond: 5.04% -1 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.56 +14 bp (+32 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.37 +9 bp (+19 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.59 +6 bp (+22 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 142.83 -1.18 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1329 +$0.0050
Dollar Index: 99.45 -0.51
Gold: $3,342.90 +$50.30
Bitcoin: 109,313 -1914
Crude Oil: $61.05 -$0.17
DJIA: 41,482 -378
NASDAQ: 18,665 -261
S&P 500: 5778 -63
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.