CHM Blog

Today the FOMC meeting at 2 pm ET and Jerome Powell’s press conference are the main events.

ADP this morning reported July private jobs, thought to be +75K increased by 104K and June revised from -33K to -23K, it was the strongest increase since March, the survey also showed that year-over-year pay growth remained solid in July, at 4.4% for job-stayers and 7.0% for job-changers—unchanged for the fourth consecutive month.

Also this morning, Q2 GDP was expected at +2.5% but increased to +3.0% indicating the economy is holding on and improving from what had been expected. Q2 personal consumption spending at +1.4% year/year was what had been forecast. The 10 year note jumped from 4.33% yesterday to 4.36% and MBS prices declined 11 bps from yesterday’s 26 bp gain.

Early this morning MBA weekly mortgage applications last week were down 3.8% from the previous week that was up 0.8%; purchase applications -5.9% from 3.4% and refinance applications -2.7% unchanged from the decline the prior week.

While there is no rate cuts from the Fed today, the stronger economy leans to less chance of the Fed cutting rates in September at the next FOMC meeting; that said it’s a moving target and today’s data doesn’t tilt the table much. Friday the July BLS employment report will add more information.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened quietly, +11, NASDAQ -80, S&P -19. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.38% +5 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -8 bps from yesterday’s close and +15 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am June pending home sales were thought to be +0.2% after increasing 1.8% in May.

Now we wait until this afternoon. The FOMC policy statement at 2 pm and Powell at 2:30 pm; the policy statement important but Powell’s press conference the headline today. There is more to come, tomorrow the Fed’s go to inflation report, PCE, inflation is expected to have increased based on forecasts.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.38% +5 bp

5 year note: 3.96% +5 bp

2 year note: 3.92% +5 bp

30 year bond: 4.91% +5 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.40 -8 bp (+15 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 103.13 -6 bp (+10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.42 +6 bp (+21 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 149.03 +0.55 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1468 -$0.0078

Dollar Index: 99.52 +0.64

Gold: $3,356.70 +$32.70

Bitcoin: 117,656 +160

Crude Oil: $69.70 +$0.49

DJIA: 44,625 -8

NASDAQ: 21,143 +44

S&P 500: 6377 +6

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.