CHM Blog

Nice day yesterday, stock indexes early this morning unchanged from yesterday. The 10 year at 8 am ET 4.31% +1 bp, DJIA +13. MBSs at 8 am -7 bps after increasing 19 bps yesterday.

Powell back at Congress today at the Senate Banking and Services Committee. Yesterday, although still saying the Fed will wait to lower rates Powell did relax saying that if inflation holds steady the Fed will begin lowering rates, he intimated a possibility of a cut next month when the FOMC meets on July 30th. Markets were also buoyed yesterday that the cease fire between Israel and Iran was holding.

Weekly MBA mortgage applications better last week, the composite +1.1% from -2.6% the prior week. Purchase apps -0.4% after falling 3.0% previously. Refinances increased 3.0% from -2.1% prior.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -6, NASDAQ +103, S&P +14. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.33% +3 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -6 bps from yesterday’s close and +16 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am May new home sales, expected at 694K from 743K in April, reported at 623K.

Crude oil over the previous five sessions has declined from $75.00/barrel to $63.50 yesterday, today up to $65.00 (+$0.68) at 10 am.

Powell just starting his appearance at the senate Banking Committee. Yesterday at the House Powell bolstered the rate and stock markets admitting the Fed was lagging behind in lowering rates but insisted he would wait to see more inflation data and employment data. Tomorrow weekly jobless claims thought to be unchanged at 245K, Friday Powell’s go to inflation report, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and May personal income and spending. Month/month overall and core PCE expected unchanged from April while year/year overall and core both increasing 01.%, core year/year 2.6% from 2.5%).

The 10 year note over the previous three days has fallen from 4.40% high last Friday to 4.29% yesterday at its 200 day average in futures markets, today backing off to 4.33%.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.33% +3 bp

5 year note: 3.89% +2 bp

2 year note: 3.82% +3 bp

30 year bond: 4.86% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.39 -6 bp (+16 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 103.10 -3 bp (+6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.23 -8 bp (+11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 145.82 +0.90 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1603 -$0.0008

Dollar Index: 98.10 +0.24

Gold: $3,327.80 -$6.10

Bitcoin: 107,975 +2267

Crude Oil: $64.92 +$0.55

DJIA: 43,074 -15

NASDAQ: 20,016 +104

S&P 500: 6105 +13

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.