CHM Blog

At 8:30 am ET weekly jobless claims, thought to be 221K for last week increased to 241K, the highest in nine weeks; continuing claims increased by 83K to 1.916 million the highest since November 2021. The increase in claims follows ADP private jobs declining to 62K against expectations of 125K yesterday; and JOLTS job openings declining reported on Tuesday. Yesterday Q1 GDP advance report at -0.3% and the first quarter in contraction over the last few quarters and down from +2.4% in Q4 2024.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported the month of April saw U.S.-based employers announce 105,441 job cuts in April, much better than March’s 275K cuts but so far in 2025, employers have announced 602,493 job cuts—the most for this time of year since 2020. “Though government cuts are front and center, we saw job reductions across multiple sectors last month,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President at Challenger.

The initial reaction pushed the 10 year note yield down 3 bps to 4.13% but immediately climbed back to unchanged. MBS prices were up 7 bps for one minute then fell back to unchanged. The claims are a help for lower long-term rates and encourage the Fed to look at rate cuts; pushing against that though yesterday’s March PCE inflation was reported lower than the low forecasts. The Fed has mixed signals to think about and those signals are not very reliable with tariffs a major unknown.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +187, NASDAQ +350, S&P +55. 10 year note 4.14% +2 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +5 bp from yesterday’s close and +15 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 9:45 am the final April PMI manufacturing index, expected at 50.7 declined to 50.2 and unchanged from March.

At 10 am the final April ISM manufacturing index, expected at 47.9 increased to 48.7 but down from 49.0 March and remains in contraction mode.

Tomorrow’s April employment report, both NFP and private jobs expected to have slipped from March.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.15% -1 bp

5 year note: 3.70% -4 bp

2 year note: 3.57% -4 bp

30 year bond: 4.68% unch

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.49 +5 bp (+15 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 103.02 +4 bp (+10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.15 +2 bp (+12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 144.72 +1.65 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1315 -$0.0017

Dollar Index: 99.85 +0.39

Gold: $3,237.10 -$82.00

Bitcoin: 96,188 +2033

Crude Oil: $58.21 unch

DJIA: 40,878 +209

NASDAQ: 17,725 +278

S&P 500: 5617 ++48

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.