CHM Blog

Spring shift?: The more things change, the more they barely budge

“Hamstrung” is a word aptly applied to describe real estate’s spring market. As it enters full swing, Realtor.com’s Snejana Farberov reports that while more sellers are warily coming off the sidelines to dip their toe in the market, mortgage rates remain stuck in the mud of economic uncertainty. Add the combo of high costs and limited inventory in some regions, and calling spring the best time to do business may find blowback from both potential buyers and sellers.

First-time homebuyers on a budget? No light at the end of the tunnel there yet. Realtor’s Economic Research Analyst Hannah Jones says, "The market has shifted toward higher-priced homes selling as entry-level buyers are priced out of the market, which has led to near-record-high down payments. It is likely this trend will continue until housing affordability improves."

Sellers are hopeful, however, with new listings increasing by a stunning 31.2% this week compared with the same time last year. While this marks the 12th consecutive week of annual growth, a closer look finds it coincidentally may have to do with bunnies and flowers. According to Jones, the huge surge in new listings this week is due in part to low new-listing activity during the same period last year, which coincided with Easter week 2024.

"Major holidays, like Easter, typically lead to low housing market activity," explains Jones. "As a result, annual new listing growth is likely overstated and will fall back in line with recent trends next week."

So be still your heart. Even if the new inventory number is somewhat artificially inflated by the annual comparison with last year's low-activity holiday week, it’s still a welcome boost for buyers looking for fresh listings.

A wide-angle snapshot of all active listings for the week ending on March 29 shows that the number of homes for sale was up 32.3% compared with the same period a year ago, continuing a 73-week streak of annual gains.

"This year-over-year growth in inventory gives buyers more choices and encourages more competitive pricing among sellers," says Jones.

But that pesky pandemic is still messing with the market, it seems. “Even with these inventory gains, the number of homes on the market remains below pre-pandemic levels,” says Farberov. “This persistent supply gap is all but guaranteed to put upward pressure on prices in areas suffering from a dearth of for-sale properties.”

She goes on to say that at the same time, the pace of the market has continued to be sluggish, with homes languishing unsold for two days longer than a year ago.

As for mortgage rates, the past few weeks saw the average rate on 30-year fixed home loans gradually rise before sliding back slightly during the week ending April 3.

For the third consecutive week, the national median list price remained unchanged from a year ago, representing a 44-week streak where prices have either stayed flat or ticked down year over year.

Hard to tell if that stability has meaning, however. Jones notes that it suggests that in the face of an adjusting market, the market is trying to find its footing amid higher borrowing costs and growing home inventory. If you’re a homeowner, however, the silver lining is that while overall prices have not moved much, the value of homes, when their size is factored in, has edged up.

Realtor, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates have been under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +23 bps last week. This may have been enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Higher

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Tariffs, 2) Inflation and 3) The Fed.

1) Tariffs: The bond market will continue to have very strong swings and reactions as more tariff, retaliatory tariff and trade negotiations unfold this week with the April 9th date fast approaching. The across the board 10% tariffs kicked in on April 5th while the following will escalate in two days:

• Laos 48%

• Vietnam 46%

• Thailand 36%

• China 34%

• Indonesia 32%

• Taiwan 32%

• Pakistan 29%

• South Korea 25%

• Japan 24%

• EU 20%

2) Inflation: We will get both CPI and PPI this week.

3) The Fed: We will get the Minutes from the last FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

Treasury Auction: We have a busy week for debt with Thursday's 30Y Bond auction getting the most weight among MBS traders.

04/08 3YR note

04/09 10YR note

04/10 30YR bond

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets were moving towards higher rates. Volatility has started high and will stay that way all week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.