CHM Blog

Weekly jobless claims at 8:30 am, expected at 230K jumped to 240K, up 14K from the prior week, the highest level in a month. Continuing claims rose by 26,000 to 1,919,000 in the earlier period, well above market expectations that they would ease to 1,890,000, to the highest level since November 2021.

Q1 second look at GDP was thought to be the same as the preliminary released last month at -0.3%, reported at -0.2%. Its the first negative GDP since Q1 2022. Consumer spending growth slowed to 1.2% from +1.8% at the initial release, the weakest since Q2 2023, and federal government expenditures fell 4.6%, the sharpest drop since Q1 2022. In contrast, fixed investment jumped 10.3%, the strongest increase since early 2022, and exports rose 2.4%. The GDP Price Deflator was unchanged at 3.7%.

Yesterday a US court blocked the President's reciprocal tariffs declaring them illegal. The order applies to the President's global flat tariff, elevated rates on China and others, and his fentanyl-related tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. Other tariffs imposed under different powers, like so-called Section 232 and Section 301 levies, are unaffected, and include the tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles. The Justice Department filed a notice of appeal with the US Court of Appeals.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +82, NASDAQ +217 (NVidia earnings yesterday), S&P +47. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.46%. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +21 bps from yesterday’s close.

At 10 am April pending home sales expected -1.1% declined 6.3%. Details this afternoon.

Two very key reports tomorrow, April PCE inflation and the May final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Last Tuesday the Conference Board’s confidence index surprised with solid improvements in consumers’ attitude.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.43% -4 bp

5 year note: 4.02% -4 bp

2 year note: 3.96% -4 bp

30 year bond: 4.95% -3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.89 +21 bps

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.61 +11 bps

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.91 +8 bps

Dollar/Yen: 144.39 -0.48 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1343 +$0.0050

Dollar Index: 99.42 -0.45

Gold: $3,338.50 +$43.60

Bitcoin: 108,224 +1247

Crude Oil: $61.22 -$0.62

DJIA: 42,191 +92

NASDAQ: 19,283 +182

S&P 500: 5926 -38

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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