CHM Blog

Treasuries increased a little yesterday. Officials from China and the U.S. met in Stockholm for the second day in a row, but the meeting did not produce any headlines. Early this morning stock indexes in futures markets were slightly higher but not much, yesterday the indexes were not much changed from Friday. Today the key data hits at 10 am ET, see below.

At 8:30 am June US trade deficit expected at -$99.0B reported at -$86.0B. Imports declined 4.2%, exports dropped 0.6% (interesting but not a market-mover). Importers likely reduced their foreign orders after front-loading their inventories on worries of aggressive tariffs by the US, which triggered a record-high deficit of $162B in March.

At 9 am May Case/Shiller home price index for 20 cities, year/year expected +3.0% reported at +2.8%, month/month +0.4% from +0.7% in April.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +23, NASDAQ +117, S&P +18. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.40% -2 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +3 bps from yesterday’s close and +5 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am two key reports; June JOLTS job openings thought to be at 7.400 million down from 7.769 million in May. Openings reported at 7.437 million, May revised to 7.712 million.

July consumer sentiment index from the Conference Board estimates were at 95.8 from 93.0. The index improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2 (1985=100), from 95.2 in June (revised up by 2.2 points). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 1.5 points to 131.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose 4.5 points to 74.4. But expectations remained below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead for the sixth consecutive month. The cutoff date for preliminary results was July 20, 2025.

At 1 pm Treasury will auction $44B of 7 year notes, yesterday’s 2 and 5 year auctions were soft with weak foreign demand with the US dollar continuing to strengthen.

The FOMC meeting begins today, nothing until tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow kicks off July employment concerns with ADP reporting private jobs expected at +75K from -33K in June. Thursday June PCE inflation with estimates that inflation picked up in June, overall year/year +2.5% from 2.3%, core year/year 2.7% unchanged from May.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.38% -4 bp

5 year note: 3.95% -3 bp

2 year note: 3.91% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.92% -4 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.25 +3 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 103.03 +4 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.21 +7 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 148.56 yen unchanged

Dollar/Euro: $1.1542 -$0.0048

Dollar Index: 99.03 +0.40

Gold: $3,315.00 +$5.00

Bitcoin: 118,838 +768

Crude Oil: $67.31 +$0.60

DJIA: 44,800 -42

NASDAQ: 21,247 +68

S&P 500: 6401 +11

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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