CHM Blog

Inflation in April was less than expected on both CPI and PPI, retail sales were weaker than thought, weekly jobless claims still holding steady and were unchanged from the prior week. Fed chief Powell talked about the Fed reviewing its policy that has remained unchanged the past five years, implying the new policy due to be finished in September will likely put more emphasis on inflation than employment. All good news. Yesterday the 10 year note fell 10 bps, MBS prices increased 37 bps.

Prior to 8:30 am ET this morning the 10 year note was down another 4 bps, MBS prices started 16 bps higher from yesterday.

Data at 8:30 am; April housing starts and permits, starts expected at 1.362 million reported at 1.361 million and up from 1.324 million in March, permits expected at 1.450 million reported at 1.412 million and down from 1.482 million in March, the weakest in eleven months, single-family permits decreased by 5.1% to 922 thousand and permits for buildings with five or more units dropped by 4.4% to an annualized rate of 431 thousand.

April import prices at +0.1% against forecasts of -0.3% (March imports revised from -0.1% to -0.4%), the slight increase took place despite the baseline 10% tariffs that were placed on imports at the start of the month, export prices +0.1% with estimates at -0.3%.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened quietly +23, NASDAQ -34, S&P +9. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.40%-4 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +16 bps from yesterday’s close and +22 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am the mid-month University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was estimated at 53.0 from 52.2 two weeks ago. Consumers getting even more concerned.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.41% -3 bp

5 year note: 4.02% -3 bp

2 year note: 3.94% -4 bp

30 year bond: 4.87% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 100.95 +16 bp (+22 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 102.64 +10 bp (+22 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 100.85 +10 bp (+25 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 145.51 -0.18 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1198 +$0.0013

Dollar Index: 100.80 -0.08

Gold: $3,186.10 -$40.50

Bitcoin: 103,909 +743

Crude Oil: $62.00 +$0.38

DJIA: 42,360 +37

NASDAQ: 19,150 +38

S&P 500: 5927 +10

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.