CHM Blog

Yesterday a trade deal with Japan and encouraging signs of a deal with the EU. Treasury sold $13B of 20 year bonds yesterday that met with strong demand. The European Union and the US are progressing toward an agreement that would set a 15% tariff for most products, according to diplomats briefed on the negotiations, the same percentage as Japan. There were also reports a deal with Indonesia was close to being agreed, and a deal with the Philippines has been worked out. August 1st is one week away. The DJIA increased 508 yesterday, this morning in pre-opening futures trading the index at 8 am ET down 280 points.

This morning weekly jobless claims expected at 225K from 221K the previous week were reported at 217K. It was the sixth consecutive decline in initial claims to the lowest since April, extending the period of relative robustness in the US labor market following brief alarms earlier in the year. Continuing claims though suggest new hiring is slowing, 1,955 million in the earlier week, from 1.965 million marginally below market expectations but remaining at the second highest reading since November of 2021. Initial claims filed by federal government employees jumped by 193 to 789, the highest in four months.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -300 after increasing 500 points yesterday, NASDAQ opened +84, S&P +12. 10 year note 4.44% +5 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -13 bps from yesterday’s close and -16 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 9:45 am July preliminary PMI composite index thought to be at 52.3 increased to 54.6 suggesting the economy remains resilient. But manufacturing index thought to be 52.7 dropped to contraction at 49.5 while the service sector increased to 55.2 from 53.1 in June.

At 10 am June new home sales expected at 650K reported at 627K.

Some volatility this morning, the 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.44% +5 bps MBS prices -13 bps. At 10 am the note at 4.42% and MBS prices -7 bps up 6 bps since 9:30 am.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.42% +3 bp

5 year note: 3.98% +4 bp

2 year note: 3.92% +3 bp

30 year bond: 4.96% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.15 -13 bp (-16 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.93 -10 bp (-10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.15 -5 bp (-10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 146.53 +0.02 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1772 unch

Dollar Index: 97.34 +0.12

Gold: $3,370.30 -$27.30

Bitcoin: 118,688 +259

Crude Oil: $65.74 +$0.49

DJIA: 44,847 -164

NASDAQ: 21,051 +31

S&P 500: 6371 +12

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.