CHM Blog

This morning in early trading the 10 year note at 4.49% -2 more basis points and slightly lower than the 4.50% we see as a major trading level. There is talk in the new administration about increasing the amount of issuance of notes and bonds, the 10 year note getting a slight support from the conversations.

The recent interest in the 10 year treasury note is increasing and it has helped rates slip. Outstanding treasuries are about $28 trillion. Long-term yields have more freedom to move compared to the short end that is directly influenced by Federal Reserve policies, making them barometers of investors’ outlook for economic growth, inflation and the trajectory of the US deficits and resulting government issuance needs.

At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened -260 after falling 451 yesterday, NASDAQ opened +34 and S&P -7. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.49% -2 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon +8 bps and +14 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 9:45 am the FLASH PMI February report on manufacturing and the service sector, manufacturing index thought to be at 51.3, services sector at 53.0; manufacturing reported at 51.6 from 50.1 in January, the service sector index 49.9 from 52.8 in January; the decline below 50 is surprising, the index has not been in contraction mode for months.

At 10 am two key data points. January existing home sales forecasts at 4.16 million, reported at 4.08 million and the December sales revised from 4.24 million to 4.29 million. The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index estimated at 68.0 from 67.8 two weeks ago. Consumer sentiment continues to soften.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.46% -5 bp

5 year note: 4.31% -4 bp

2 year note: 4.25% -4 bp

30 year bond: 4.70% -5 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @10:00 am 101.07 +15 bp (+21 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @10:00 am 102.71 +8 bp (+14 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.96 +8 bp (+9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 148.79 +0.17 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0483 -$0.0019

Dollar Index: 106.59 +0.22

Gold: $2,944.30 -$11.80

Bitcoin: 98,600 +102

Crude Oil: $71.37 -$1.20

DJIA: 43,766 -411

NASDAQ: 19,905 -57

S&P 500: 6094 -24

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.