June 2nd, 2025 9:23 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
This morning the 10 year note began +4 bps at 4.44%, MBS prices started -12 bps from Friday, stock index futures began lower.
Fed Governor Waller thinks there is still potential the Fed may lower rates this year if the economic outlook slows. Morgan Stanley expects U.S. Treasury yields to fall as a result of these factors, taking the 10-year yield to 4.00% by end-2025 and just above 3.00% by end-2026 the strategists say. “We think that the prospect of more Fed cuts than the market is currently pricing will drive government bond yields lower, particularly starting in early 2026.”
Opinions from analysts and economists these days shouldn’t be taken as seriously as in times past. The uncertainty over tariffs is such that every day can present an entirely new momentary view. Long term outlooks are couched with a lot of what ifs. It isn’t likely to change soon, initially the tariff negotiations were expected to be codified in months, it may take a year. As the swings move to and fro the opinions will also do.
At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened -182, NASDAQ -20, S&P -15. 10yr at 9:30 am 4.44% +3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon -12 bps from Friday’s close and -3 bps from 9:30 am Friday.
At 9:45 am May final PMI manufacturing expected at 52.3, reported at 52.0.
At 10 am May ISM manufacturing expected at 49.1, reported at 48.5, manufacturing remains in contraction.
Comments on trade always a daily possibility, beside those the key this week is May employment on Friday, jobs expected to slow and average hourly earnings to have edged lower.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.44% +3 bp
5 year note: 4.00% +3 bp
2 year note: 3.94% +3 bp
30 year bond: 4.97% +3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.85 -12 bp (-3 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.61 -7 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.84 -11 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yen: 142.98 -1.07 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1418 +$0.0069
Dollar Index: 98.91 -0.41
Gold: $3,384.10 +$68.60
Bitcoin: 104,285 -891
Crude Oil: $63.08 +$2.29
DJIA: 41,975 -295
NASDAQ: 19,050 -64
S&P 500: 5877 -34
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.