CHM Blog

Markets unchanged this morning and likely to remain that way until 2 pm ET when the FOMC policy statement and the Fed’s forward projections are released. Then at 2:30 pm Jerome Powell’s press conference. Markets fully anticipate 25 bp cut and 50 more bps by the end of the year. Inflation still well above what the Fed wants to see but the recent decline in the labor market has taken the focus at the Federal Reserve.

August housing and starts and permits weaker than expected. Starts expected at 1.370 million dipped to 1.307 million from 1.492 million in July; it was the fourth-lowest reading since May 2020 down 8.5%. Permits thought to be 1.370 million were lower at 1.312 million, down 3.7%, the lowest since May 2020. Single-family permits decreased by 2.2% to an annualized rate of 856K, while permits for buildings with five or more units dropped by 6.7% to 403K.

MBA weekly mortgage applications last week surged 27.7% from the prior week. Refinance apps increased 24.4% from the prior week which had increased 12.2% from the week before that. Purchase apps +2.9% but down from the week before that increased 12.2%.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +186, NASDAQ -12, S&P +3. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.02% -1 bp. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +2 bps from yesterday’s close and -4 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

Nothing now but waiting on the Fed.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.03% unch

5 year note: 3.60% unch

2 year note: 3.52% +1 bp

30 year bond: 4.63% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.27 +2 bp (-4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.33 -2 bp (-11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.17 unch (-10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 146.25 -0.22 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1852 -$0.0016

Dollar Index: 96.74 +0.10

Gold: $3,716.30 -$8.80

Bitcoin: 116,132 -692

Crude Oil: $64.27 -$0.25

DJIA: 46,018 +261

NASDAQ: 22,277 -57

S&P 500: 6607 unch

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.