October 17th, 2025 8:41 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Yesterday the 10 year note cracked 4.00%, closing at 3.97%, the lowest rate since early April. This morning no follow through the note at 8 am ET 3.99% +2 bps.
There are new concerns that regional banks may have issues motivating investors and traders into treasuries. Increasing comments in the news that a possible correction in stocks. Recent trading in stock indexes has seen a pickup in interday volatility. Powell announced the end of quantative tightening The Fed has been draining its balance sheet since 2022. Since 2022 the Fed’s balance sheet has declined by $2.2 trillion. That the Fed will stop draining reserves may imply the need of increased reserves if the economy rolls over sending equity markets down.
September housing starts and permits delayed. September import and export prices delayed. September industrial production and capacity utilization also delayed.
No progress on the government shutdown now in its 17th day.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +45, NASDAQ -101, S&P -16. 10 year at 9:30 am 3.99% +2 bp. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -2 bps from yesterday’s close and +14 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
No reported data this week, just estimates leaving traders and investors guessing.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.00% +3 bp
5 year note: 3.59% +4 bp
2 year note: 3.47% +4 bp
30 year bond: 4.61% +3 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.17 -2 bp (+14 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.26 -3 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.97 -2 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 150.19 -0.24 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1679 -$0.0011
Dollar Index: 98.42 +0.08
Gold: $4,291.40 -$13.20
Bitcoin: 105,309 -2930
Crude Oil: $57.47 unch
DJIA: 46,026 +73
NASDAQ: 22,524 -38
S&P 500: 6620 -9
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.