CHM Blog

Fall: The new golden season for homebuyers

They say timing is everything, and included in that adage is real estate. According to Teresa Mettela's reporting for Realtor.com, the sweet spot for homebuyers in 2025 officially arrived on October 12th, “With it comes more listings, lower prices, and significantly less competition than we've seen in years,” she says.

Experts confirm what the data shows: the market is shifting. After rates eased recently, brokers have been fielding more calls from buyers and agents, according to Mettela. “Even in tight markets like Miami, where inventory remains limited, there's a noticeable seasonal bump in activity. Families want to settle in before the holidays and start fresh in January, creating natural momentum this time of year.”

The numbers? They tell an encouraging story after a sluggish spring and summer. Inventory climbed past one million listings nationally by late spring, and while they are still slightly below pre-pandemic levels, the gap has narrowed considerably. Realtor.com projects that the third week in October could offer as much as a third more active listings than the start of the year. For buyers, it seems likely to translate into the real deal, saving them more than $15,000 compared to summer peak prices on a median-priced home of $439,000.

Timing, however, varies by location. Of the 50 largest metros, 13 hit their prime earlier in the year, while 16 will peak later. New York City and Philadelphia saw optimal conditions in early to mid-September, while Miami and Tampa won't hit their stride until early December. Major markets like Houston, Los Angeles, and Washington align closely with the national October window.

Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, notes that buyers are finally responding to lower mortgage rates, with purchase applications climbing in recent weeks. Newly listed homes ticked up for the first time in several weeks, though seller momentum has waned compared to earlier in the year. The market is shifting buyer-friendly, making it the most balanced housing market seen in years. Time on market has defaulted back to pre-pandemic norms, and seller expectations are adjusting as well. Some metros, like Austin, even tilted buyer-friendly over the summer. Buyers can negotiate again, take their time, and weigh options. It’s no longer an offer shootout.

Affordability is still stuck, however, as economic uncertainty continues to dampen demand. For those financially ready to strike, however, this fall presents a meaningful opportunity. The key is understanding your local market and moving confidently when the right home appears.

Realtor, TWBS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under a little pressure today. The MBS market improved by +14 bps last week. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

These are the three things that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) The Federal Reserve, 2) Geopolitical and 3) Government Shutdown Delays.

1) The Federal Reserve:

We have a big week for the Fed. We will get their Beige Book on Wednesday and hear from Fed Chair Powell on Tuesday. There will be other Fed speakers every day this week.

2) Geopolitical:

The peace deal in the Middle east is removing uncertainty from bond markets while the continued Government shutdown is adding uncertainty.

3) Government Shutdown Delays:

Several very important data points continue to be delayed by the shutdown. Bond markets will be keenly interested in Retail Sales, the Producer Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims if the government reopens.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets have started under a little pressure. Volatility has started at moderate to low levels but with so much in the air it could escalate any time this week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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